The Premier League race is over. That’s what Paddy Power have decided this weekend, as they have already paid out on Liverpool winning the title.
Unfortunately for the bottom three, the relegation race also looks finished too. Here’s five things we learned in match week 26 of the 2024/25 campaign.
Bounce back Villa
Aston Villa have played three home games in the last week, with their results improving each time. They drew 1-1 with 10-man Ipswich Town first, then held leaders Liverpool 2-2 in midweek.
On Saturday, two goals from Marco Asensio secured a win over Chelsea. One thing all three games had in common was that Villa conceded the opening goal.
The five points recovered from losing positions took their total in this regard to 18 for the season, the joint-most of any team in the Premier League.
Newcastle are the other team on 18, after coming from behind to beat Nottingham Forest on Sunday. If you’re betting in play on either side, do not write them off too soon.
Eagles for Europe?
In the second weekend of November, Crystal Palace lost 2-0 at home to Fulham. It left the Eagles in the relegation zone with seven points from 11 games
Palace returned the favour to Marco Silva’s side at Craven Cottage on Saturday, winning thanks to an own goal from former player Joachim Anderson and a strike from Daniel Munoz.
Across the 15 match weeks since November’s low point, Oliver Glasner’s men have been the sixth best team in the Premier League. Had they found two more points somewhere, only Arsenal and Liverpool would’ve earned more in this period.
You can get decent odds for Palace to finish in the top half. They might be six points adrift but their form over the last three months suggests it’s a distinct possibility.
Wolves on the run from relegation
While the three promoted teams have been in relegation trouble throughout 2024/25, this may have been their worst collective weekend of the campaign.
They were all at home, each hosting a side no higher than ninth in the table. But, sadly for Ipswich, Leicester City and Southampton, they all suffered demoralising defeats and conceded four goals.
To compound their misery, Wolves won at Bournemouth when priced at longer odds for a victory than any of the bottom three were in their matches.
Within their next eight matches, Vitor Pereira’a side face all three of the sides below them. Their gap to the drop zone is only five points.
But don’t get any funny ideas. The race is run, it’s over. The promoted teams are going down in May.
Early bird Magpies
The underlying data for the season suggested Forest had a better chance of avoiding defeat at St James’ Park than Paddy Power’s odds implied.
Don’t miss with Paddy. He knows what he’s on about.
Despite the visitors opening the scoring in the sixth minute, the match was effectively won by the Magpies’ less than half an hour later. We should have expected a red-hot start.
Only Arsenal and Tottenham have seen their matches pay out on over 2.5 goals earlier on average than Newcastle, for starters.
Eddie Howe’s boys are in hot form for this too. Five of their seven matches since the half way point of the season saw three goals (or more) in the first half. Only four other clubs have had more than that all season.
If you’re betting on Newcastle, bet early. As the saying goes, the early bird catches the over 2.5 goals pay out. I think that’s how it goes.
Liverpool hit title cruise control
We must finish at the Etihad. Paddy paid out on Liverpool’s title win after Arsenal were beaten by West Ham on Saturday, but the Reds’ comfortable win over Manchester City only enhanced that decision.
Arne Slot’s boys defended superbly. They restricted the deposed champions to 0.6xG, their second worst tally in any league or European game at home in the last eight seasons.
Much has been made of Liverpool’s recent stumbles. They drew 2-2 at Everton and Aston Villa either side of having a shot less half against Wolves.
But due to fixture rescheduling, only two of their last eight league games were at home. They will be at Anfield for seven of their last 11.
Liverpool dropped two points at Villa Park after going 1-0 up. Normal service was resumed against City, as the Reds have now won 17 of the 18 league matches in which they scored first.
They will be champions. Paddy knows what he’s on about.
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