It was a bigger weekend at the top of the Premier League table than at the wrong end. Only one of the bottom eight got so much as a point, leaving things largely as they were, whereas Liverpool extended their lead to six points (still with a game in hand).
Here’s five things we noticed from the latest round of matches which might affect your betting selections in future.
The Sweetest Cherries
Newcastle went into their match with Bournemouth as favourites. They were at home and had won their previous nine games in all competitions. With six in the league, they were on the joint-longest winning streak of any team in the Premier League this season.
Yet the expected goal data for 2024/25 said the Cherries were the likelier to win. Not by much, granted, but the underlying numbers painted them as the second-best team in the division behind Liverpool.
While they are in the mix for Champions League qualification, Bournemouth would be even higher in the table with better finishing. They have scored 6.5 goals fewer than expected, dropping points they should have claimed. But on Saturday lunchtime, it all came together.
Bournemouth host Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in their next two games. Don’t be surprised if Andoni Iraola’s men prove again they are the real deal against more top teams.
Dodge the double
The Cherries’ victory was secured thanks to a hat-trick from Justin Kluivert, his second of the season. He embarrassed his father Patrick by scoring more league goals at St. James’ Park than his old man managed in a season playing for the Magpies.
Another multiple goal scorer on Saturday was Darwin Nunez, whose brace from the bench turned one point into three for Liverpool at Brentford. Jean-Phillippe Mateta also scored both goals in a 2-0 win at West Ham, while Amad Diallo turned an embarrassing defeat to Southampton into a face-saving win for Manchester United with a hat-trick in midweek.
Despite this, players are scoring multiple goals less often this season. It is happening every 4.4 games on average, when that figure was 3.5 last season and 3.7 the year before. Prior to the recent flurry mentioned above, the rate was 4.7.
Goals are being shared around. Tread carefully in the ‘To Score 2 or More Goals’ market, my friends.
Lead holders Liverpool
Paddy Power’s ‘2 Up Early Payout’ offer will have softened the blow of Arsenal dropping two points for their fans who backed them to beat Aston Villa. Combined with Liverpool’s win at Brentford, the matches showed why the Reds are leaving the Gunners trailing.
If we disregard Arsenal’s 0-0 draw with Everton, both teams have had 21 league games this season in which there was at least one goal. The split between scoring and conceding first is almost identical too: 14-7 for Mikel Arteta’s men, 13-8 for Liverpool.
The difference is what happens next. The Reds have won all 13 games in which they went 1-0 up. Arsenal have drawn five of their 14, including against Villa this weekend.
The Gunners have the best record in the Premier League for recovering points from behind. But the big teams score first more often, so that has a bigger impact on the table.
If you’re betting in play and Liverpool break the deadlock, you can expect them to win.
Ange’s Spursy Spurs
Another two teams to watch for when betting in play clashed at Goodison Park on Sunday.
Coming into the weekend, Everton’s matches had featured the joint-fewest first half goals this season, whereas Tottenham’s had seen the most.
Who could’ve guessed that Spursiness would overpower the low-scoring Toffees to see the home side race into a three-goal lead at the break? Oh yeah, everybody.
In only one of the 12 league games in which Everton have avoided defeat this season were they behind at half time. Similarly, only once have they led at the break and then lost.
As for Spurs, they have now lost nine of the 10 games in which they trailed at the interval. Whatever shape these teams are in at half time, don’t expect much to change when they come back out.
Home is not always where the goals are
It was a great weekend for away teams, all of whom scored at least twice.
While home teams have more victories than sides on the road in 2024/25, by 85 to 73, the proportion of home wins (39%) is below the long-term Premier League average of (46%). More notable is that visiting teams have scored more goals than the hosts this season, by 331 to 327.
If you class a big win as by at least three goals, there have been 18 for home teams but 21 for the away side. No team has won by five-or-more in front of their own fans, yet it’s happened four times on the road.
Home advantage isn’t what it was in 2024/25.
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