Week 11 was another good one for Liverpool, who opened up a five-point advantage at the top of the Premier League title race? There have been five previous instances of a team leading by at least this margin after 11 matches and they all won the title.
The way things are going, Manchester City might not be the Reds’ main challengers. They lost at Brighton, who are one of four clubs on 19 points piling up behind the defending champions. Here’s five things we learned about the 2024/25 Premier League this week from our football tipster and statto Andrew Beasley.
Arne on the defensive
There’s an old sporting cliche along the lines of ‘attack wins games, defence wins championships.’
Premier League history shows otherwise. In the last 29 seasons, the side with the fewest goals conceded won the title 11 times, whereas the leading attack lifted the trophy on 20 occasions.
Quite often the champions are unsurprisingly best at both ends, leaving only four who had the best defence without scoring the most goals. Liverpool were the last example, and this is the situation in which they find themselves this season too.
But with the attacking talent they have, Arne Slot is right to prioritise clean sheets. By beating Aston Villa 2-0, the Reds are past half way to their shut-out total of 10 last season, with six. Unlike many champions of the past, this could be the route home for Liverpool in 2025.
Keep your set piece gurus
There’s too much fuss about set piece coaches. The camera loves focusing on them prowling around technical areas whenever their team gets a throw-in.
We saw both sides of the coin this weekend. Brentford and Bournemouth scored from set plays in their clash, as did Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, as the latter won 3-1 at the City Ground.
At Anfield, Aston Villa’s best chances (and two thirds of their expected goals) came from dead ball situations. But Liverpool’s goals came from such moments too, as the Reds countered Villa’s failed set plays.
And here’s the thing. Despite the attention lavished on the likes of Nicolas Jover and Austin MacPhee, there have been fewer set piece goals per game than in two of the last three seasons. Had there been just one goal fewer in total, the per match rate would be behind 13 of the last 14 campaigns. Don’t believe the hype.
Will Wolves’ goals go cold?
At the bottom of the table, Wolves beat Southampton 2-0. Their chances were valued at 1.3 xG but what’s a little overperformance between friends?
Goals and xG are unlikely to match in a single game which is why we need bigger samples. Looking at them makes ominous reading for Wolves though.
Gary O’Neil’s men have scored 16 times from chances valued at 11.3 expected goals, overachieving at a rate of 0.43 per match. In the previous seven seasons, the only team to reach this average was the Manchester City side of 2017/18.
Remember them? They got 100 points. This level of efficiency is not sustainable for relegation strugglers. If you’re thinking of backing Wolves, bear in mind a cold snap in front of goal is coming.
Haaland vs. Nunez: The return of 2022
It was a big weekend for the big transfer stories of 2022: Erling Haaland and Darwin Nunez. They were first and joint-second for most shots this week, both scoring while also missing Opta-defined big chances.
For Nunez, this is normal. That he scored is the weird part, if anything. But for Haaland, it’s becoming a theme at the worst possible time for City.
After the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, he had converted seven of 10 big chances in the league this season. With hindsight, telling Mikel Arteta to stay humble may have angered the karmic gods of football.
Haaland then didn’t have a big chance for three league matches, before converting only two of nine in the last three. He missed a penalty in the loss to Sporting in midweek too.
His rate for the season is fine and he’s still comfortably the top scorer in the division. But with no other attacker having more than one league goal for City, they need Haaland to deliver more than he has lately.
2-0 wins are so 2023
If you back a team to win and they go two goals ahead, Paddy Power will pay out regardless of the result. This weekend featured 2-0 wins for Fulham, Liverpool and Wolves on Saturday, before Manchester United and Newcastle won by at least two the following day.
Despite this, the rate for wins by this margin is down on last season. In 2023/24, 58% of victories were by two-or-more goals but that has dropped to 48 this term, with fewer matches being won too.
Is the league becoming more competitive? Arsenal and City being less dominant will be one explanation for this downturn. But whatever the factors, fewer games are being won comfortably. Paddy must be delighted.
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