Football Tips: Paddy’s top traders pick their best bets in our weekend Cheat Sheet

Everton v Leeds: Over 2.5 goals

The overs clicking in a Leeds match is nearly the definition of a banker these days. It has clicked in seven of their last eight Premier League matches. The fact is has clicked in eight of Everton’s last ten matches is also encouraging. I do not think recently appointed Frank Lampard is going to tighten up the Everton defence in time to impact on the confidence of this tip. Also, Bielsa has no interest in changing from his man-to-man approach that contributes significantly to the high scoring games whenever Leeds play. The 3-3 game with Villa midweek was also the second time in three games that over 2.5 goals clicked by half-time! So might not even have to wait too long to chalk this one up as a winner.

Norwich v Man City: Man City to Win to Nil

I had my eye on a couple of banker selections this weekend but at the current price, Man City to Win to Nil is just too good to turn down.

Norwich have picked up a bit of momentum in recent weeks and fought hard for a mid-week point hosting Crystal Palace. Despite the well-earned point, some of the data from that game looks a little worrying as they take on the league leaders – Norwich managed just one shot on target & shared less than 30% possession of the ball. While it’s true Dean Smith is getting something extra from his players – under his watch they are still only producing, on average, 3.3 Shots on Target per game. Add to this the fact City have the meanest defence in the league – conceding the fewest & giving up the fewest Shots on their goal, I just don’t see a way through for Norwich. The Canaries could be lucky to see 20% of the ball here but their survival won’t rest on this game; they could find themselves a couple down and looking forward to more winnable games.

City have won without conceding 13 times already in the league this season – let’s make that 14 on Saturday.

Norwich v Man City: Man City to Win to Nil

It’s not a market that I always look to because it’s never won until the final whistle, but I can’t see Man City having many problems at Norwich this Saturday evening. Man City currently have the league’s best defence with just 14 goals conceded whilst Norwich have scored the fewest amount of league goals this season with 14 as well. The Canaries have improved recently partnering Adam Idah up front with Teemu Pukki but they don’t have enough goals in them or quality to trouble the league’s best defence. Man City have won each of their last 4 games against teams in the bottom 7 to nil, and I think it should be fairly comfortable again for them at Carrow Road.

Result & Both Teams to Score Double: 
Man City win & BTTS, Liverpool win & BTTS

Man City and Liverpool play away this weekend to relegation contenders Norwich and Burnley.
Fully expect the two title contenders to win both matches but think there is little value in the current match odds prices. However, one way to get both teams onside this weekend is a “Result & Both to Score” double. This bet just need Man City and Liverpool to the win the matches with Burnley and Norwich scoring also. Man City and Liverpool will have one eye on the upcoming midweek Champions League games (away to Sporting Lisbon and Inter). This little distraction is enough to convince me there is a bit of increased opportunity for Norwich and Burnley to score and therefore more opportunity for this long shot to click. Although be advised, this long shot goes against both Rob’s and Brian’s banker, so could just play the single on Liverpool win and Burnley score at 15/8.

Nice Win & Both Teams to Score

A trip to Europe for this week’s longshot as Lyon host Nice. The visitors look overpriced for me in this one. League winner at Lille last year, manager Christophe Galtier left to take charge of the Côte d’Azur club with ambitions as great as the club’s mega-rich hierarchy. Nice find themselves in the Top 3, one point back from the 2nd place. The league’s form side suffered a shock defeat last time out but quickly put that right with an impressive 4-1 Cup victory, in midweek, over high-flying Marseille.
It’s been a different story for Lyon’s new man in charge Peter Bosz. Currently sitting 8th in table they have struggled for consistency all year. Prized asset Bruno Guimaraes has fled to Newcastle & big-name Summer signing Xherdan Shaqiri has already packed his bags and left for the MLS.
Despite their issues Lyon still have some quality in front of goal – so I’m happy take the additional risk and bigger price on Nice to Win & Both Teams to Score.

Crystal Palace Win & Watford Win Double

Crystal Palace go to Brentford who have lost 6 on the trot now and have just one win in their last 8 league games. They might’ve won enough games early in the season that just a couple more wins will be enough to keep them up but it’s a worrying trajectory that they’ve been on in the past few weeks. Crystal Palace themselves will be left wondering how they aren’t slightly further up the table with the performances they’ve had this season.

They’ve been a much better team to watch this season than previously and although they only drew at Norwich midweek, they were a Wilfred Zaha penalty away from likely coming away with all three points, I think at 15/8 they’re worth having a go on here.

Watford haven’t won a game since the end of November when they smashed Man United 4-1, but again, I think the price here is worth taking at home Brighton. Despite their generally good underlying xg figures, Brighton have only won two of their last 20 games! Their season appears to already be ran in terms of they won’t go down, and they’re unlikely to get Europe and without big motivation levels, I fear their season could just meander out. That being said this is a big chance for Watford, and one they’ll have to take you’d think if they are going to mount a survival charge and again, worth having onside in a long shot double!

Over 2.5 Goals 

I went with over 2.5 goals in Forest v Leicester last week and it clicked. Short- and long-term absences for Leicester still include Evans, Castagne, Vardy, and possibly Fofana. Given the known absences at the back for Leicester I expect to see plenty of goals in this game. Leicester matches have averaged 3.5 goals per game in the league this season with over 2.5 goals clicking in 14 of their 21 games. West Ham also have a high rate themselves, with average of 3 goals per game and over 2.5 goals clicking in 14 of their 24 league games as well. Again, for a fun bet builder, I rather be cheering on the attackers at both ends for this game.

Craig Dawson 1+ Shot on Target

Leicester’s defensive struggles have been well documented this Season. The Foxes currently top the charts for most goals conceded from set-pieces – their issues defending corners and free kicks don’t look like they will be resolved anytime soon either. Liverpool’s opening goal on Thursday night came indirectly from a corner and Virgil Van Dijk headed shot on target.
A signature of this West Ham side is their quality delivery from set-pieces. Additionally, in the league, they rank in the Top 5 for Corners won per game while Leicester rank Top 3 for Corners conceded per game. This could spell disaster for the Foxes.
Craig Dawson is averaging just under a Shot a game this Season and given the opposition, I fancy him to get at least one on target here. Let’s hope the Hammers have a centre half making the headlines for the right reasons this Sunday evening.

West Ham to win

Leicester has been a nice fixture for West Ham recently, having won their last 3 games against the Foxes in all competitions. Leicester have been out of sorts over the past couple of months and have won just 1 of their last 6 league games. They have been unfortunate with a hjost of injuries with none of Bertrand, Castagne, Evans, Vardy or Fofana being available for selection this Sunday. The depleted backline have conceded 39 league goals already this season, and with West Ham’s attacking force from set pieces – expect Soucek & Dawson both to be on the end of set-pieces, I think West Ham will be good value for 3 points this weekend to strengthen their top 4 hopes & add to Leicester’s mid-season slump.