Premier League tips: Check out our trader’s best-value EPL outright bets for winner, top four and relegation

A new season is upon us, let’s get stuck in.


Jason Murphy caught up with PPTV to preview the upcoming Premier League season and unearth some outright value for you.

We’ve chopped his preview into bite-sized chunks which you can watch in full below, but read on to see Jason’s Premier League outright best bets for the 2020/21 season along with our handy bet-specific widgets. Make sure you don’t miss Jason’s tips for the Premier League Golden Boot 2020/21 which includes two long-range each-way shouts.

Title tip

It’s definitely a two-horse race. I’m a Manchester United fan and they won’t close the gap in one window or with that manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, in charge.

Chelsea have spent well. I thought Frank Lampard did really well last season given that they lost Eden Hazard and they couldn’t buy anyone. It was a fantastic achievement to get in the top four and make the FA Cup final.

They’ve made some excellent, excellent additions. Chelsea will be better this season but I don’t see them closing the gap to the top two so, for me, it’s between Manchester City and Liverpool.

Liverpool ran away with the league last year but they simply cannot match that performance again. They have to regress.

They won 14 games by a single goal last season, it’s not possible to have that sort of a run again. Jurgen Klopp says football’s about moments and I think a lot of the moments last season went Liverpool’s way. Their points total has to drop off.

Manchester City were unlucky with the injury Aymeric Laporte injury last season in particular. I’ll put it to you this way, if Virgil van Dijk had missed as much as Laporte had missed, I think City are champions at the end of it.

That’s the difference an injury can make in a key position like that. So, for me, Man City can win it, but if you want an outright bet, a smart play, have a look at the Dual Forecast market. It’s a two-horse race and you have Man City and Liverpool in your pocket at that price.

Top Four Fancies

Given everything I’ve said I’d have to side with Chelsea for top four. They cannot help but improve with the quality of signings they’ve brought in.

Man United, there are still some concerns, even with the good run they put in post lockdown. There were a couple of results – away to Aston Villa and away to Crystal Palace – 20 to 25 minutes into those games they weren’t playing well and they got penalty decisions that went their way to break the deadlock.

I’m still not fully convinced by United, but I’m going Chelsea third and still United to get top four behind that top two.

You’d like to think Arsenal can push them close if Mikel Arteta can get it right and Jose Mourinho’s too good a manager not to get Spurs with a decent point tally this season.

Wolves are going to have 16 fewer games this season with no European football to contend with so they can concentrate on the league.

So, I’m going Chelsea third, United fourth Wolves and Arsenal fifth and sixth with Spurs probably seventh again, but there will be very little difference between the teams in terms of points tally towards the end of the season.

Shouts to struggle

In terms of the teams that have come up, that Leeds team from last year would have gone off as favourites against most of the bottom half of the Premier League last year so they’ll be fine.

I do think Fulham and West Brom will go down. Fulham’s defence still contains Tim Ream, Denis Odoi and Joe Bryan – three of the back four that played for them two seasons ago in the Premier League when they got relegated conceding 81 goals.

That was really, really poor and they didn’t score enough goals in The Championship last season, just 64. They’re really heavily dependent on Aleksandar Mitrovic to get their goals.

An injury to him and you’d think they’re definitely gone. Even with him they’re the one team that I say will definitely go down.


I have West Brom going down with them and Crystal Palace I have real concerns for, given how they finished last season. They got one point in their last eight games post lockdown.

They stayed up by a single point last season and seven of the games they did win were by just one goal. Again, like I said about Liverpool, they were on the right side of some tight moments and that helped them survive.

For me, it’s a 50/50 toss-up whether Palace stay up this season. Three teams have to go down and I’d say it’s Fulham, West Brom and Palace.

Palace at the bigger price at the moment is probably the best bet but the relegation treble for those three offers a really tasty price.

Outright tips for this year’s Premier League

Title Tip: Dual Forecast Man City and Liverpool
Top Four: Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd
Shouts To Struggle: Fulham, West Brom and Crystal Palace to be relegated

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What do you think?