The thing about Wolves is their period of overachievement was so lengthy that their recentish blip feels like the end of the world and a major drop-off.
But it’s easy to be deceived by that as a bettor – they’re an outfit who are simply enjoying their football.
Conversely, many will consider Wolves’ season to be miles better than Everton’s when in fact, that’s to do with expectation and presumption more than actual performance. And you now ask the question – would Wolves swap their squad for Carlo Ancelotti’s? I’m not so sure anymore.
This feels like a trap game, and when you notice that the Toffees’ catastrophic campaign is just seven points worse-off than their opponent’s, you have to think twice.
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So what would most would consider a home-banker really isn’t. It’s just the narrative in your head. And with the dream of Champions League football having devolved into the nightmare of a Europa League schedule potentially without crowds, is there really much motivation here for the hosts?
Everton to Win
I understand that it’s controversial to a degree, but Richarlison is the best player in this entire matchup, while Lucas Digne is arguably the second-most-talented. This really isn’t a case of betting with your head. It needs to be checked out to actually back up your leans.
Add into that Wolves, who are in the conversation for Champions League football, are currently 12th in a Premier League table when only taking home games into account. That back three is far more effective when it’s stationed as a back five with the two wing-backs being utilised only in situations where it most benefits them to do so.
The one thing that Everton do have in their arsenal is wide play and you just feel they can exploit those spaces in behind, with a big target man in the middle to play off in quick transitions if required. I really fancy an Everton win and an upset here. Probably because it shouldn’t be deemed an upset.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score Anytime
The best centre forward on a pitch should never be this price to score a goal. That’s my justification for this. And the thing about Dominic Calvert-Lewin is that he can score goals in many different ways, compared to the one-dimensional approach of Raul Jimenez.
And for Calvert-Lewin to be this price to score in 90 minutes given he’s considerably below xG projections for the season is something I absolutely want to be involved in.
A Red Card in the Match
This feels like an environment where the wheels falls off for one of these two teams. Either Wolves’ work for the year comes undone in a game they feel they should be winning, or Everton witness a team they believe to be inferior to them close in on European football at their expense.
It’s not like these two teams are short of a few players who like a tackle either. I think there’s plenty of value for a red card in the match in here.
Tips for Wolves vs Everton 12:00 Sunday
Everton to win
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score Anytime
A red card in the match
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More top tips for Sunday’s footy
- Our 3 best bets as struggling Aston Villa host Crystal Palace
- It’s the North London derby, but who will come out on top? Our 4 top tips for today’s cracker
- Bournemouth need a win, but Jamie Vardy and Leicester are hunting a top-four finish – our best bets for today’s late game
- There’s life beyond the Prem! Our deadly double from the Championship today
- ‘We’re all going on a European tour’: Today’s continental acca takes us to Spain, Italy and Turkey