Football Tips: The 5 best bets for the Bundesliga this weekend

Infogol crunch the numbers to find the best bets based on Expected Goals this weekend


Hertha Berlin vs Augsburg: Hertha Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/5

Saturday, 2:30pm

Hertha Berlin have exceeded all expectations after the restart, picking up seven points from tricky trips to Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig and a Berlin derby. Their performance in midweek against Leipzig was fantastic, as they went to the Red Bull Arena and created much the better chances, beating RB Leipzig on the xG battle (xG: RBL 0.6 – 1.7 HER) – something only four teams have managed to do this season.

All three games under Bruno Labbadia have shown improvements, and since the break they have averaged 1.9 xGF per game and looked searingly dangerous in attack.

Augsburg were second best against bottom side Paderborn in midweek, creating very little in the way of chances against the leagues basement side. That was a disappointing performance and result following their excellent 3-0 success at Schalke, but they come into this game with a worryingly poor away process, allowing 2.1 xGA per game.

Defensively they are vulnerable, and Hertha should expose them, so back Hertha Berlin to win and Over 2.5 Goals.

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Mainz vs Hoffenheim: Over 3.5 Goals

Saturday, 2.30pm

Mainz are winless since the break, and that streak means they are now hovering dangerously above the relegation play-off place after Fortuna Düsseldorf’s recent results – just one point separates them. Performances have reflected results too, so it isn’t like they have been unfortunate, and their display at home to RB Leipzig last weekend was a sorry one, as they were thumped 5-0 (xG: MAI 0.3 – 4.7 RBL).

Better is needed here, but that may be tough unless they tighten up defensively, as they allow an average of 2.0 xGA per game this season.

Hoffenheim ended a seven-match winless run with victory over FC Köln in midweek, a game in which they raced into a 3-0 lead early in the second half before letting their foot off the gas. Their performances since the break, in contrast to Mainz’s, have been solid, winning the xG battle in both games against Hertha Berlin (3.0 – 1.5) and Paderborn (1.0 – 1.9), so are creating good chances. However, they too are far from solid defensively, allowing 1.9 xGA per game this season, so goals are expected, with the model suggesting to back Over 3.5 Goals.

Schalke vs Werder Bremen: Under 2.5 Goals

Saturday, 2:30pm

Schalke have been woeful form since the end of January, failing to win in 10 league games, scoring just three times and conceding 24 – relegation numbers. Their underlying process in that time has been as bad, averaging 0.8 xGF and 1.5 xGA per game, with the key stat there being their weak attacking numbers; only this week’s opponents Werder Bremen have averaged fewer xGF in that period.

The eye test backs up just how bad David Wagner’s team have been, and they have played at this level all season despite sitting in a lofty sixth for most of the campaign.

Werder Bremen were thumped on the Bundesliga resumption by Bayer Leverkusen, but have picked up four points since, winning at Freiburg before being unfortunate not to beat top four contenders Borussia Mönchengladbach in midweek (xG: WER 0.9 – 0.5 BMG). They have shown a bit of defensive stability in their last two games, allowing just 1.3 xGA (0.65 average), so appear to have tightened up.

That combined with Schalke’s weak attack means we could be in for a boring game, so back Under 2.5 Goals.

Bayern Munich vs Fortuna Dusseldorf: Bayern to Win & Over 4.5 Goals

Saturday, 5pm

Bayern Munich tightened their grip on the title with a 1-0 success in Der Klassiker, a game in which they asserted their dominance from a defensive standpoint, limiting Dortmund to just 0.6 xG. That was their 13th win in 14 league games, and it moved them seven points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, which probably isn’t a fair reflection of how dominant they are and have been this season from an underlying numbers perspective.

Bayern have averaged 3.0 xGF and 1.0 xGA per home game this season, so are likely to create a host of chances once again, just like against Frankfurt last weekend in the 5-2 success.

Fortuna Düsseldorf moved within a point of safety with a 2-1 win at home to Schalke in midweek, a deserved win that extended their unbeaten run to six games. Performances have taken a turn for the better of late from an xG perspective, but on the road this season they have been poor, allowing 2.1 xGA per away game – the most in the league.

We expect Bayern to win, and to do so well, with the Bavarians breaching Fortuna numerous times in a high scoring game. Back Bayern Munich to win and Over 4.5 Goals.

Borussia M’gladbach vs Union Berlin: Gladbach to Win & Over 2.5 Goals 

Sunday, 2.30pm

Borussia Mönchengladbach came back from the break well in a 3-1 win, before being second best in both of the following games against Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen.
Tiredness could have been an issue during midweek, as it was a below-par attacking display. A team that on average creates 2.1 xGF this season only managed to rack up 0.5 xGF against a team second bottom of the table.

Home comforts will be welcome though, as they look to end this mini-slump, with their process at home impressive (2.4 xGF, 1.6 xGA per game), as are their results (9W, 2D, 3L).
Union are nervously looking over their shoulder’s after a run of five games without a win, as they are now just four points above the relegation play-off place after a 1-1 draw at home to Mainz in midweek.

They haven’t been firing on all cylinders since the break, averaging just 0.6 xGF per game, and their last away trip ended in a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of city rivals Hertha. That poor away performance is something we have seen from them all season long, allowing an average of 1.9 xGA per game on the road, suggesting Gladbach could have their way with them here.

Back Borussia Monchengladbach to win and Over 2.5 Goals.

Bundesliga Bets Summary:

*All odds correct at time of publication


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