Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg 19.30
Bayer Leverkusen have been excellent since the resumption of the Bundesliga, dominating Werder Bremen in a 4-1 away win (xG: WOL 0.86 – 2.35 LEV), before launching themselves into title contention with a well-earned 3-1 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach (xG: MON 2.40 – 3.43 LEV).
From an attacking standpoint, Peter Bosz’s side have been mightily impressive in those games, with Kai Havertz being the main protagonist. The youngster scored a brace in both matches, lifting his tally to eight goals from 5.14 expected goals (xG) in 2020.
Wolfsburg have struggled to create chances in their two games since the restart, generating 1.28 xG against Augsburg and just 0.59 xG against Borussia Dortmund at the weekend. Surprisingly, Wolfsburg’s underlying numbers are slightly better on their travels than at home, recording 1.75 xGF and 1.42 xGA per game away from the Volkswagen Arena (1.40 xGF and 1.06 xGA per game at home).
Nevertheless, the selection is to get on side with Kai Havertz to net again, getting more looks at goal in his ‘false nine’ role.
Selection: Back Kai Havertz to score anytime.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg @ 19.30
Eintracht Frankfurt have struggled on their return to Bundesliga action, losing 3-1 to Borussia Mönchengladbach (xG: EIN 1.01 – 2.43 MON), before getting hammered by table-toppers Bayern Munich at the weekend (xG: FCB 3.54 – 1.21 EIN).
Adi Hütter’s side have posted decent numbers at home this season, though, creating chances equating to 2.10 xGF per game. Should they improve on their recent defensive issues, Eintracht can climb the table.
They face one of the worst away sides in the league here. Freiburg have managed to collect 17 points on the road this season, but their underlying numbers are very worrying, conceding an average of 2.25 xGA per game away from home.
After being slightly fortunate to come away from RB Leipzig with a 1-1 draw based on xG (RBL 2.03 – 0.38 FRE), Freiburg lost at home to relegation-threatened Werder Bremen on Saturday, creating just 0.81 xGF.
Infogol sees tremendous value in Eintracht Frankfurt gaining a much-needed home win.
The model gives them a 62 per cent chance of collecting all three points, so the Evens on offer at time of publishing should be backed.
Selection: Eintracht Frankfurt to win.
Werder Bremen v Borussia Mönchengladbach @ 19.30
Werder Bremen returned to Bundesliga action with a poor performance at home to Bayer Leverkusen, deservedly losing 4-1. They followed that up with a valuable 1-0 win at Freiburg but struggled to create chances for themselves in that match (xG: FRE 0.80 – 0.46 WER).
It’s been a torrid season for Werder, sitting 17th in the table, and collecting the least amount of points of any side in the Bundesliga when playing at home (5). Borussia Mönchengladbach will be looking to bounce back from a crushing loss against fellow title contenders Bayer Leverkusen, losing 3-1 in what was a poor defensive performance by ‘Die Fohlen’.
Marco Rose’s side look a constant threat going forward, averaging 2.18 xGF per game on average this season. They also possess the third-best expected goal difference in the Bundesliga away from home (+5.8), behind RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich.
Infogol expects Mönchengladbach to notch a vital away win.
Selection: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win.
*Prices correct at publishing but are subject to change
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