Freiburg v Werder Bremen: Freiburg to win and both teams to score @ 11/4
Freiburg gained an invaluable point at RB Leipzig last weekend in their quest to finish in a Europa League place, though they were fortunate to avoid defeat according to expected goals.
They create plenty of good chances regularly at home though (1.4 xGF per game), and shouldn’t have an issue breaching a porous Werder Bremen side.
Werder were extremely poor on Monday night against Bayer Leverkusen, going down tamely 4-1, a result that means they are now further from safety.
Defensively they are a mess – especially on the road – allowing 2.1 xGA per game. They will likely concede goals again here, but they should get a consolation in a high scoring game.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen: Gladbach to win and over 3.5 goals @ 4/1
A cracking game between two of the league’s top five teams. Borussia Monchengladbach were impressive in their 3-1 win over Frankfurt, coasting to a deserved success thanks to an extremely fast start – scoring twice in the opening seven minutes.
They have been fantastic at home this season, picking up 29 points from a possible 39, and their underlying process has been impressive (2.4 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game) as well. Expect plenty of chances at both ends.
Bayer Leverkusen were equally as impressive on Monday night against Werder Bremen, running out 4-1 winners, as they continue to keep pace with the top four.
Despite picking up the second-most points on the road this season, Leverkusen have actually posted a negative process, meaning they have been fortunate to get the results they have in some games.
Away from home they average 1.5 xGF and 1.8 xGA per game, so like Gladbach are involved in entertaining end-to-end games. Borussia Monchengladbach are our tip to prevail in a high-scoring game here though.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund: Draw and both teams to score @ 7/2
Wolfsburg picked up a last gasp win over Augsburg last week, moving them up to sixth in the table. They are one of the Bundesliga’s best defensive teams, allowing an average of only 1.15 xGA per game.
At home this season their matches haven’t seen many goals (2.23 average), or expected goals (2.44 average) either given their defensive nature, and the model thinks they will hold their own here and avoid defeat.
Dortmund were emphatic 4-0 winners against rivals Schalke, but they were flattered by the scoreline according to xG (DOR 1.30 – 0.41 SCH) thanks to some clinical finishing.
On the road this season they have been an average side (1.4 xGF, 1.4 xGA per away game), and we reckon they will struggle to beat Wolfsburg here in a game with both teams netting.
Paderborn v Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim to win and both teams to score @ 5/2
Paderborn played out a dull goalless draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf last weekend, a result that did neither team any favours in their bids to survive.
The basement side are rightly bottom according to xG, and their process at home this season is a real cause for concern, allowing 2.1 xGA per game.
Hoffenheim were extremely unfortunate to lose to Hertha Berlin last weekend, and by a 3-0 scoreline, as they created enough chances to warrant something from the match (xG: HOF 3.03 – 1.51 HER).
They are the better of these two sides, but not by a great deal, as they continue to concede good chances regularly too (1.9 xGA per game).
Bundesliga tips summary:
Freiburg v Werder Bremen: Freiburg to win and both teams to score @ 11/4
Monchengladbach v Leverkusen: Gladbach to win and over 3.5 goals @ 4/1
Wolfsburg v Dortmund: Draw and both teams to score @ 7/2
Paderborn v Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim to win and both teams to score @ 5/2
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* All odds correct at time of posting and are subject to change.
