A massive game in the Bundesliga fight for survival. Mainz pulled themselves slightly further from the relegation play-off place last weekend, winning 2-0 at home to Paderborn leaving them four points above opponents Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Mainz have been fairly impressive when playing at home recently, posting a positive expected goal difference (xGD) of +0.28 in their last five matches. Fortuna Düsseldorf are the Bundesliga’s worst team in both attack and defence based on xG this season, averaging 1.13 xGF and 2.26 xGA per game.
They enter this game on the back of another woeful defensive performance, letting a 3-0 lead slip in a 3-3 draw with Hertha Berlin last weekend.
Infogol sees tremendous value in Mainz gaining a much-needed home win.
Selection: Mainz @ 5/6
Juventus sit second in Serie A, but are much lower on Infogol’s xG table, ranking as the sixth-best team in the league according to expected goals. Maurizio Sarri’s side have undoubtedly struggled to adjust to the managerial change this season, but their home form has been impeccable.
The Old Lady has won 11 of their 12 games at home, while posting excellent underlying numbers (2.33 xGF and 0.91 xGA per game). Inter Milan haven’t played a league game for three weeks, deservedly losing 2-1 at Lazio in what was another huge game at the top of the table. Antonio Conte’s men like to keep things tight on the road, averaging 1.04 xGA per game, so a low-scoring game may be on the cards.
Infogol expects Juventus to leap back to the top of the Serie A table with a home win.
Selection: Juventus @ 6/5.
Real Betis’s 2-1 defeat at Valencia last weekend extended their winless run to six games,. However, in their two home games during that period, they did cause Barcelona problems and dominated proceedings in a 3-3 draw with Mallorca. They have averaged almost 2 xGF per game at home this season.
Real Madrid come into this match on the back of an important El Clasico victory, beating Barcelona 2-0 at the Bernabeu (xG: RMA 1.16 – 1.64 BAR), returning to the top of the La Liga table. Despite an excellent second-half performance, Real were fortunate not to be behind, having conceded four good chances before taking the lead.
Zinedine Zidane’s side do have impressive underlying numbers away from home (1.78 xGF and 1.15 xGA per game), but the Benito Villamarin is a very tough place to go.
Infogol’s model reckons Real Betis can gain at least a point in this game.
Selection: Real Betis or Draw @ 10/11.
*The odds are correct at publication but are subject to change.