Saturday, March 7, Main Fantasy Slate
Arsenal (8/15) v West Ham (9/2)
Wolves (8/13) v Brighton (4/1)
Crystal Palace (6/4) v Watford (2/1)
Southampton (8/13) v Newcastle (4/1)
Sheffield United (8/13) v Norwich (9/2)
Burnley (17/10) v Spurs (17/10)
Four of the six matches on Saturday’s main Paddy Power Fantasy slate have a clear favourite with our traders, with Palace-Watford and Spurs-Burnley the exceptions. That gives us several teams we can feel good about targeting, and it should lead to ownership being fairly dispersed outside of Arsenal.
Arsenal are clearly the slate’s most attractive team. They are the biggest favourite, and their matchup with West Ham has slate-best odds to go over 2.5 goals (4/7). Stacking them is awfully enticing against a West Ham side that’s shipped 49 goals in 28 EPL matches this season.
Given the fantasy-friendly matchup, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£23) is a great play and should be one of the slate’s highest-owned players. Auba — who carries slate-best anytime goal odds of 8/13 — has 17 goals and one assist this season in the EPL. He’s tallied four goals and 10 total shots across his past four matches in all competitions.
Oh, and if you’re into narratives. Auba might be extra motivated after his nightmare miss last week that contributed to Arsenal going out of the Europa League.
https://twitter.com/brlive/status/1233159282868310016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
If you want to avoid the heavily-owned Auba, use Alexandre Lacazette (£18) and/or Nicolas Pépé (£20). Lacazette, who isn’t a lock to start, owns marks of six goals and four assists in 15 EPL starts this season, and he’s at Evens to score anytime, the third-best odds on the slate. Pépé — the only player other than Aubameyang to take a penalty this season for Arsenal — has four goals and six assists in 16 league starts. He’s created four chances in each of his past two EPL outings, and the Ivory Coast international is 13/8 to score anytime.
My other favourite team to stack on this slate is Wolves. Here are Wolverhampton’s goal totals over their last four games in all competitions: three, three, three and four. Sure, two of those matches came against an Espanyol side that is last in La Liga, but the other two were EPL outings versus Spurs and Norwich, with Wolves bagging three at Tottenham last weekend.
Just like we had with Arsenal, Wolves offer us one stand-out play who’ll be popular as well as a few other appealing options. Raúl Jiménez (£19) has been a beast this season, netting 13 goals with six assists. He’s taken all three of Wolves spot-kicks in EPL action. Despite all that, Jiménez is just 11/10 to score anytime.
Wolves alternatives are Diogo Jota (£18) and Adama Traoré (£13). For me, Traoré — as long as he’s able to play through his shoulder ailment — is one of the best value plays on the slate. The Spaniard was in dazzling form not that long ago, creating exactly two chances in six straight matches from January 1st to February 14th. He’s got a ceiling that not many others can sniff in this price range. I’ll be overweight on Traoré as long as he starts. If Traoré is out, Pedro Neto (£11) would become a nice value option, assuming he starts.
As for Jota, he’s scorching hot, recording three goals and an assist across his past two EPL matches (48.6 and 36.5 PPF points). There’s a chance he doesn’t see big-time ownership, as the price bump he’s received puts his salary up there with the likes of Lacazette, Pépé and Jiménez.
ROTTERDAM, NETHERLANDS – JULY 28: Che Adams (R) of Southampton celebrates scoring his teams first goal of the game with Danny Ings during the pre season friendly match between Feyenoord Rotterdam and Southampton Football Club at Stadion Feijenoord or De Kuip on July 28, 2019 in Rotterdam, Netherlands. (Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)
Lastly, I want to mention Danny Ings (£16) and Oliver McBurnie (£17). Ings’ salary has dropped after two straight lacklustre outings, but with Southampton a heavy home favourite over Newcastle, now is a great time to pounce. Ings is very goal-reliant in fantasy, but he’s odds-on to score anytime Saturday, the second-shortest odds on the slate.
McBurnie is more of a placeholder for whomever Sheffield United start in attack against bottom side Norwich. The traders have Lys Mousset (£12) with the top anytime goal odds in this match (5/4), but Mousset has been in the starting XI just once in Sheffield’s last five matches. McBurnie, on the other hand, has started four times in that span and has fired off eight shots over his last two matches. The Blades-Canaries clash is Even money to go over 2.5 goals and has sneaky-good fantasy appeal, as Norwich have played a fantasy-friendly style all season.
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