Manchester City v Fulham
FA Cup Fourth Round, Sunday, 1pm, BBC One
Sunday’s first instalment of live BBC FA Cup action comes from the Etihad, as Championship promotion hopefuls Fulham face the daunting task of eliminating the short-priced favs for the trophy, Man City.
Here on the trading floor, we are extremely keen on Man City in the FA Cup – it’s not like they’re winning the league – and have been taking on all around them as we stay way below the market on them in the outright, pricing them 15/8 before this round of fixtures.
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One of the main reasons we fancy City so much is that their supposed “second string” side which they put out in the FA Cup is more than good enough to finish top four in the Premier League and could beat anyone on their day.
Factor in that the league is basically done and dusted, and that means Guardiola will want to set his sights on collecting some silverware this season. Why not make it the FA Cup?
City are an unbackable 1/12 to win tomorrow, but we can try find some value elsewhere.
Fulham come into this game with not a whole lot to lose, which is usually a dangerous mindset for opponents, however, I think even the most hardened of Fulham fans will have accepted defeat already in this.
They’d also surely rather see their side push towards gaining promotion. They are without their talismanic centre forward and top goalscorer Aleksandar Mitrović through injury so will struggle to find the net even if they think they can take down the reigning champions.
This brings me to my first selection, albeit not the most enticing looking price-wise – Man City to win to nil at 10/11.
As mentioned, Fulham missing their leading goal threat is huge and I just can’t see where they will get a goal from against this City side who will dominate possession. I also fancy City to put on a bit of a show as they so often do in cup games, so the 15/8 about City -3 also appeals.
As far as the player markets are concerned, it’s a little tricky to know exactly what lineup City will put out. However, I would expect Aguero to start having featured and scored the winner off the bench last time out.
With this in mind, Aguero to score two goals or more at a top price of 17/10 is very appealing. I would also expect Phil Foden to get a run tomorrow, and the 6/4 about him to get on the score sheet appeals too.
Three of these four selections can be combined through a Same Game Multi as well – Foden to Score, City -3 and Aguero to score 2 or more – at odds of over 8/1. That looks the value play to me.
Man City to win to Nil @ 10/11
Handicap: Man City -3 @ 15/8
Aguero to score two or more @ 17/10
Foden to Score Anytime @ 6/4
SGM: Foden to Score, City -3 and Aguero to score 2 or more @ 8/1
*All odds correct at time of publication
City for the Cup? Bet on it at PaddyPower.com