Chelsea vs Burnley, Saturday, 3pm
Chelsea didn’t have the best of Christmas periods, losing to Southampton, beating Arsenal and drawing with Brighton, but they remain five points clear and in fourth place in the Premier League.
Frank Lampard’s side have been impressive for the most part this season, sitting third in our expected goals table, and they boast a very good process (2.03 xGF, 1.29 xGA per game), but they have had plenty of issues recently.
The main problem that is occurring regularly is an inability to beat lesser teams at home, as they have lost three of their last four home games to West Ham, Bournemouth and Southampton.
Burnley are an interesting case, and appear to be very streaky in their results, winning a couple then losing a couple, and they come into this game on the back of a three-match losing streak following defeat to Aston Villa last time out.
They were unfortunate to lose that game (xG: BUR 2.46 – 1.48 AST), and that has been the story of their season, as they sit 15th, but rate as the 10th best team in the league on xG. Sean Dyche’s side create plenty of opportunities on a regular basis (1.41 xGF per game) and I think they will cause a vulnerable Chelsea team problems.
We’ll leave the result to itself and go with both teams to score.
Selection: Back BTTS @ Evs.
Leicester vs Southampton, Saturday, 3pm
After a small wobble, Leicester have come back strong, beating both West Ham (xG: WHU 1.17 – 2.47 LEI) and Newcastle (xG: NEW 0.86 – 2.83 LEI) away from home to remain second in the table, and they have made light work of every Premier League team bar the big two.
Process wise, they have improved as the season has gone on, and can now boast attacking numbers of over 2 xGF per game, but their underlying defensive numbers have slowly crept up over the last six games.
Southampton are on somewhat of a revival after a sluggish start, and 10 points from their last 12 games has lifted them into mid-table, and interestingly they have beaten both Chelsea and Tottenham in that time, so won’t fear Leicester.
Over the course of the season, Saints have ranked as the fifth best team in the league on xG, so it isn’t a surprise for Infogol to see them propel up the table.
Their climb isn’t likely to stop if they continue performing at the same level.
They continue to generate plenty of opportunities in matches (1.63 xGF per game), but defensively remain vulnerable (1.73 xGA per game), meaning their games are more often than not entertaining, with goals a plenty.
Infogol doesn’t expect this game to be any different.
Selection: Back BTTS @ 06/10.
Wolves vs Newcastle, Saturday, 3pm
Wolves have lost their last two games coming into this one, a deserved narrow defeat at Anfield before being unfortunate to lose at Watford (xG: WAT 0.84 – 1.42 WOL), a game in which they deserved at least a point.
They have been impressive once against this season, building on their 7th placed finish in 18/19, and their process is at a similar level to last season (1.67 xGF, 1.37 xGA per game), suggesting that Wolves will be hanging in the top half of the table for a while.
Newcastle had a bad Christmas period, losing all three of their games by an aggregate of 9-2, and their performances were as bad as the results suggest, with the xG aggregate in that time being 8.41-3.20.
Over the course of the season, Steve Bruce’s side rank as the worst team in the Premier League according to expected goals, sitting bottom of our xG table, so are fortunate to be in mid-table and five-points clear of the relegation zone.
Process wise they are extremely poor, generating a league-low 1.01 xGF per game while allowing 1.98 xGF per game, so we views this as a top team taking on one of the worst in the division.
We expect goals here and over 2.5 goals looks the play.
Selection: Back over 2.5 goals @ 10/11.
*Prices correct at time of publication and a treble on the above games is just over 5/1 at the advertised prices.
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