Aston Villa vs Southampton, Saturday, 3pm
Aston Villa come into this huge relegation six-pointer on the back of three straight Premier League losses, after a really poor performance at Sheffield United last weekend, where they created just 0.33 non-pen xG.
Dean Smith’s side rate as the worst defensive team in the Premier League according to xG, having allowed an average of 2.23 xGA per game, and that is something that needs addressing moving forward. You don’t win too many games when you concede over 2 xG.
Southampton are one of the more unfortunate teams in the top tier this season, languishing in the relegation zone, despite ranking as the seventh-best team according to Infogol’s xG table.
They come into this game on the back of two straight defeats, though both were undeserved losses according to our model of chances created. That has been the story of their season, scoring just 18 goals from chances equating to 27.0 xGF, and allowing 36 from chance equating to 32.0 xGA. Things haven’t gone Ralph Hasenhüttl’s way.
At some point, results will start reflecting their performances and we’re backing the Saints to start to turn their season around on Saturday.
Selection: Southampton to win @ 9/5
Bournemouth vs Burnley, Saturday, 3pm
Bournemouth caused a huge upset last weekend, as they snapped a five-game losing streak by beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, even if they were very fortunate to come away with the three points.
Eddie Howe needed that win, but it still only leaves his side four points above the relegation zone in 14th place, though they sit 17th in Infogol’s xG table, which doesn’t bode well moving forward. Their process has been poor all season long (1.35 xGF, 1.89 xGA per game), and only marginally better at home (1.48 xGF, 1.73 xGA per game), so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them return to losing ways when Burnely visit.
Burnley also ended a losing streak last weekend (3 games in their case), as they beat Newcastle 1-0 at Turf Moor. They continue to impress against the lesser lights.
They have lost eight games this season, but all eight have come against teams that sit in the top 10, and they ‘won the xG battle’ in four of those, so really are playing to a high level.
We favour Burnley to win at at the Vitality Stadium – so backing an away win is the play.
Selection: Burnley to win @ 15/8.
Norwich vs Wolves, Saturday, 3pm
Norwich caused an upset last weekend getting a point at Leicester, and it was a pretty ‘fair’ result according to expected goals (xG: LEI 1.42 – 1.06 NOR).
They can still be hopeful of surviving this season, though Infogol thinks that is going to be a tough ask given what we have seen so far.
The Canaries sit rock bottom of Infogol’s xG table after 17 games, and have really struggled at both ends of the pitch.
Wolves saw their 11-match unbeaten run come to an end at Tottenham, but were unfortunate to lose after another solid display (xG: WOL 0.95 – 0.91 TOT).
This has been a long period of excellent process for them, with their underlying numbers now 1.66 xGF and 1.33 xGA per game.
Wolves are the much better side here and should make light work of Norwich. There’s value to be found in an away win.
Selection: Wolves to win @ 10/11
A treble on these 3 away wins pays 14/1 at the advertised prices that are correct at time of posting.
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