Celta Vigo v Mallorca: Both Teams to Score – Evens
Sunday, 1pm
Somewhat surprisingly, Celta Vigo find themselves in a relegation battle once again.
Óscar García’s side need to be much more expansive if they are to claw out of the relegation zone.
At home, they average a measly 1.21 xGF per game, but do show solidity at the back (allowing 1.00 xGA per game). This game represents a good opportunity to open up against a poor defensive side.
Mallorca have been involved in some tremendously entertaining games as of late, although many of them have been losses. They suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to Betis (xG: MAL 2.71 – 2.51 BET) before a 5-2 hammering at the hands of Barcelona (xG: BAR 4.31 – 1.16 MAL).
It’s very difficult to be as bad of a defensive team as Levante are in La Liga (2.31 xGA per game), but Mallorca are not far behind, allowing chances equating to 2.10 xGA per game on average.
Juventus vs Udinese: Juventus to win to nil – 8/11
Sunday, 2pm
The Old Lady are still finding their feet under new manager Maurizio Sarri, but remain one of the better-attacking teams in Serie A – averaging over 2.00 xGF per game this campaign.
Strangely, it is in defence where Juve have struggled this season, allowing 1.30 xGA per game in the league (fifth-best in the league).
Udinese enter this game on the back of an unexpected point at home to Napoli last Saturday, scoring from their only real opportunity of the game (Kevin Lasagna, 26%) to snatch a 1-1 draw.
It is highly unlikely Udinese have the ability to cause Juve any problems considering how toothless they look from an attacking standpoint, registering an embarrassing total of 13.3 xG in 15 games played (0.89 xGF per game).
Infogol’s model believes Juventus are still value despite their very short price, but given Udinese’s troubles in attack, it is worth chancing that Juventus will win this game to nil.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: Real Madrid to win – 4/5
Sunday, 8pm
Valencia have been very disappointing so far this campaign, sitting mid-table in La Liga, and deservedly so according to expected goals, ranking as the 12th best team on Infogol’s xG table.
They have displayed serious defensive frailties this season, which surfaced again last weekend despite a 4-2 derby win against Levante (xG: LEV 2.12 – 3.09 VAL). On average, Valencia have allowed a massive 1.83 xGA per game in the league.
Real Madrid were dominant in victory last weekend, beating Espanyol with consummate ease, generating 2.36 xGF and limiting their opponents to just 0.62 xG. Zinedine Zidane’s side have been one of the best defensive units in La Liga this season, especially on the road, conceding chances equating to 8.2 xGA in their seven games away from the Bernabeu (1.17 xGA per game).
At the other end, Real continue to be excellent going forward, ranking as the best-attacking team in the league by some distance based on chances created, averaging an impressive 2.42 xGF per game.
Infogol expects Real Madrid to notch a vital away win here.
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