Football fans know that a player has a better chance of scoring with a shot from the edge of the six-yard box than a shot from 30+ yards, but on the stats sheet after a game, both are viewed equally in the ‘shots’ column. Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric which assesses every chance created during a game, assigning a likelihood of each individual chance being scored. For more details shoot over to Infogol’s Expected Goals introduction.
Reims vs St-Étienne, Sunday, 2pm
Reims have been an exceptional defensive unit at home this season, allowing chances equating to just 0.73 xGA per game – a figure only bettered by runaway leaders PSG.
A lack of goals has been a constant theme in their matches this season, with a total of 17 goals being scored in their 15 matches played in Ligue 1 so far.
St-Étienne recorded a comfortable 4-1 home victory over Nice on Wednesday night, which was fully deserved according to expected goals, however, Claude Puel’s side are a completely different entity away from home, where they severely struggle to create scoring opportunities, generating a lowly 0.76 xGF per game on average compared to 1.48 xGF per game at home.
Despite the short price, 1/2 for under 2.5 goals looks the play.
Selection: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/2
Sampdoria vs Parma, Sunday, 5pm
Immediate improvement under Claudio Ranieri has seen Samp jump out of the relegation zone after being detached at the bottom until he arrived.
That is mainly down to their home form, where they remain undefeated under Ranieri (W1, D3), and looking particularly solid in defence, averaging 0.97 xGA per game at the Stade Luigi Ferraris.
Parma enter this game on the back of a justified 1-0 home defeat to AC Milan last Sunday, posing hardly any threat to the Rossoneri in what was a blunt attacking display (xG: PAR 0.32 – 1.99 MIL).
Similar to last season, Parma are over-performing in attack according to expected goals, especially away from home, where they have scored eight times from a total of 4.40 xGF.
Sampdoria should be too strong for a Parma side who haven’t impressed on their travels so far this season. Infogol’s model believes they have a 57 per chance of gaining three points, making the 10/11 with Paddy Power the value play.
Selection: Back Sampdoria to win @ 10/11
Osasuna vs Sevilla, Sunday, 8pm
Osasuna were involved in a goal-fest last Sunday, beating Espanyol 4-2 away from home. The win saw them rise to the top half of the table, which correlates nicely with their underlying numbers for the campaign so far.
That performance displayed Osasuna’s defensive frailties on the road this season (1.70 xGA per game), but they are a completely different proposition at El Sadar, allowing just 1.14 xGA per game.
Sevilla have been one of the better defensive units in La Liga this term, conceding chances equating to 1.11 xGA per game and somewhat surprisingly, Sevilla’s underlying numbers in defence continue to be as impressive when playing away from home, averaging 1.13 xGA per game.
Infogol expects a low-scoring game here.
Selection: Under 2.5 goals @ 3/4
At time of posting the treble pays around 4/1 on these three selections.
*Prices correct at time of publishing
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