Galway liberated from Indians. Marathon becoming Snickers. The Ice Age ending. It seems all these have happened since 2010, the last time Everton beat Liverpool. That’s 3,364 days, 481 weeks and 80,736 hours since they have had bragging rights over their Merseyside rivals.
In the Liverpool line-up that famous day was Sotirios Kyrgiakos and Paul Konchesky. This was a very dark time for Reds supporters – especially when you compare it to the Ballon d’Or ceremony on Monday night in which four from the top 10 players play for Liverpool.
Liverpool are unbeaten at Anfield since the great Christian Benteke scored the winner on April 23rd 2017 and it doesn’t look like it will be much different in this game.
Everton are really struggling this season and another big loss here could see the end of Marco Silva. His team are the fourth-worst in the league according expected goals, are lying 17th, and are single-figure odds to be in the Championship next season.
Tom Davies has started the last 5 games for Everton and being a local lad he will surely be fired up for this game. He’s been booked in nearly 20% of games he’s played in the league but given the nature of this game, and with Liverpool being one of the best teams in transition, a booking here looks very likely for him.
Given that he is 13/8 to be carded, it might be worth taking a punt on him to be the first player to be carded at 9/1, as he may want to set a marker down early. He’s still only 21 and playing against a team that he grew up hating that will have 65%+ of the ball.
A lot has been made of Liverpool’s defence not being as good as last season but already this season they’ve had injuries to Gomez and Matip, who are two top-quality defenders. They still have the second-best defence in the league, conceding only 0.85 goals a game. With Everton struggling to score goals away from home – they’ve only six in seven games on their travels this season – I’d take a punt on Liverpool to win to nil at 6/4.
Marco Silva’s teams struggle from set-pieces too. In the last three seasons, at Hull, Watford and Everton, he has ranked first on two occasions and third in his season at Watford for goals conceded at set-pieces. Fresh off the back of his two goals against Brighton, Virgil van Dijk will be a major worry for the Everton defence and with the quality of Trent Alexander-Arnold’s delivery it’s very likely he’ll have at least one chance.
Van Dijk is 5/2 for a shot on target, which looks a decent bet given Everton’s struggles.
Alexander-Arnold is second in the league for chances created (48), only four behind arguably the most creative midfielder in the world – Kevin de Bruyne. He grabbed two assists against Brighton which puts him on five this season and over the last two seasons he is averaging 0.4 assists per game.
These are outrageous numbers and, with 20 assists in the Premier League, this puts him just 11 behind Ashley Cole, who got 31 assists but played 316 more games in his career. If he continues at this rate there is no doubt that he could be one of the best players the league has ever seen.
So here’s my tempting SGM bet for the Merseyside derby:
- Liverpool to win to nil
- Tom Davies to be carded
- Van Dijk 1+ Shots on target
- Alexander-Arnold 1+ Assists
A £/€1 SGM four-fold on these four selections works out at approximately 33/1 on paddypower.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.