Football fans know that a player has a better chance of scoring with a shot from the edge of the six-yard box than a shot from 30+ yards, but on the stats sheet after a game, both are viewed equally in the ‘shots’ column. Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric which assesses every chance created during a game, assigning a likelihood of each individual chance being scored. For more details shoot over to Infogol’s Expected Goals introduction.
Napoli vs Bologna, Sunday, 17:00
Napoli’s performances domestically have been dire considering the talent they possess, sporting an expected goal difference (xGD) of + 0.43 in their last five Serie A games – the underlying numbers of a mid-table team.
Bologna deserve to be much higher than the 15th spot they occupy in the league according to xG, ranking as the seventh-best team and have been desperately unlucky to concede 13 away goals this season from the chances they’ve given up.
If they continue in the same vein, results will start to match their performances.
The Infogol models gives Bologna a great chance getting a draw at least.
Selection: Bologna or Draw @ 17/10
Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain, 20:00
Monaco enter this game as the second-best attacking side in the league, creating chances equating to 1.62 xGF per game.
However, they have shown serious defensive frailties explaining why they currently languish in 14th place. PSG are averaging a massive 2.84 xGF per game, while allowing just 0.65 xGA per game, with a truly exceptional expected goal difference (xGD) of +30.56 after 14 games.
The Infogol model forecasts a 70% chance that the French champions will leave the principality with all three points. So despite their short price, PSG still represent ‘value’ to win this game.
Selection: Back PSG to win @ 4/9
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona, 20:00
Atlético Madrid will feel disgruntled that they didn’t beat Granada last weekend, carving out multiple scoring opportunities (particularly for Álvaro Morata) but failing to find a winner in a 1-1 draw
Diego Simeone’s side have real worries in attack, not so much with creating chances, but converting them. Atléti have scored just 16 goals this season despite generating 26.80 xGF!
Young superstar João Félix is back after a short spell on the sidelines through injury, and his return is very welcome considering his team’s struggles up top. Atléti do remain a fantastic defensive unit though, conceding few chances.
Barcelona find themselves top of La Liga despite ranking as only the fourth-best team in the league according to Xg.
They recovered from a shocking first-half performance against Leganés last weekend, creating plenty of good chances after the break to record a 2-1 victory but have
been extremely underwhelming on their travels.
For a team with such quality, they’re generating a miserable 1.34 xG per game, which is atrocious for them.
More heroics from Lionel Messi may be needed for Barca to win, but Atlético possess one of the few defences who could keep the little magician in check.
The Madrid side look value for a home win.
Selection: Atlético Madrid to win @ 9/5
*A treble on these three selections at the advertised prices pays approx 9/1
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