Mallorca vs Villarreal (11:00 am)
Mallorca head into this game on the back of a disappointing 3-0 away defeat to Real Valladolid last weekend (xG: VAL 2.07 – 0.71 MAL), leaving them just two points above La Liga’s relegation zone in 17th place.
However, they are much better at home than on their travels, especially going forward, and average 1.33 xGF per game this season (0.88 xGF per game away from the Iberostar Stadium).
Villarreal drew 0-0 with Bilbao at El Madrigal last Sunday, but both teams had clear opportunities to score, missing a total of 2.73 xG between them.
Chances at both ends has been the norm in matches involving Villarreal this season, with their La Liga matches averaging chances equating to 3.38 xG. They look a constant threat offensively, ranking behind only Real Madrid as the best attack in the league, averaging an impressive 2.04 xGF per game. There is good value in backing over 2.5 goals in this match
Selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20
Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen (2:30 pm)
Wolfsburg suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund last weekend, but the game was much closer than the scoreline suggests (xG: DOR 1.88 – 1.70 WOL) as Wolfsburg created a few good chances and limited Dortmund to very little before conceding a late penalty.
Defensively, they have been exceptional at home this season, allowing an average of 0.71 xGA per game and conceding just three goals in five matches.
However, Wolfsburg have struggled to fashion scoring chances, generating 5.9 xGF in those same fixtures.
Bayer Leverkusen dropped to 10th in the league following a 2-1 home defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach last weekend (xG: LEV 2.39 – 2.19 BMG), extending their Bundesliga winless streak to four games.
It is in defence where Leverkusen have looked most vulnerable this season, conceding 1.56 xGA per game on average, which is the main reason they languish in mid-table. Both sides played in Europe during midweek, with Leverkusen gaining a vital win against Atletico Madrid (xG: LEV 1.57 – 1.89 ATM) and Wolfsburg recording an unfortunate 3-1 loss at home to KAA Gent (xG: WOL 1.73 – 0.64 GEN).
In opposition to the betting market, Infogol’s model calculates Wolfsburg should be favourites to win this game at 2.70 (37%) and we think they will.
Selection: Back Wolfsburg to win @ 15/8
Juventus vs AC Milan (7:45pm)
Juventus deservedly beat Torino in the Turin derby last weekend (xG: TOR 0.41 – 1.85 JUV) to remain unbeaten in Serie A this season, winning 1-0 thanks to a Matthijs de Ligt goal. The Old Lady have not looked as dominant this season (fifth in Infogol’s xG table), but they remain an extremely solid unit at the back, allowing 1.05 xGA per game.
AC Milan have been nothing short of woeful by their standards this season, sitting mid-table in Serie A, and rightfully so according to expected goals.
Stefano Pioli has failed to improve the Rossoneri after being appointed at the beginning of October, and they struggled to create any chances of note in their 2-1 loss against Lazio at the San Siro (xG: MIL 0.82 – 0.98 LAZ).
Despite being poor from an attacking standpoint away from home (averaging 1.29 xGF per game), Milan have kept teams quiet on the road this season, conceding an average of 1.16 xGA per game. Juventus’ stingy defence and AC Milan’s struggles up top make one side to keep a clean sheet the value play.
Selection – Back Both Teams to Score ‘No’ @ 3/4
Infogol Treble pays 8/1
AC Milan v Lazio: Back Both Teams to Score ‘No’ @ 3/4
Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: Back Wolfsburg to win @ 15/8
Mallorca v Villareal: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20
*All prices correct at time of posting
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