Expected Goals explained:
Football fans know that a player has a better chance of scoring with a shot from the edge of the six-yard box than a shot from 30+ yards, but on the stats sheet after a game, both are viewed equally in the ‘shots’ column. Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric which assesses every chance created during a game, assigning a likelihood of each individual chance being scored.
The higher the xG (1.0 being the maximum), the more likely the scoring chance. So if the xG is 0.3, the chance should be scored 30% of the time. A penalty has an xG of 0.76. (76%).
Burnley vs West Ham, Saturday, 3pm
On the face of it, this game sees two out-of-form teams do battle at Turf Moor, but recent results don’t tell the full story.
Burnley were thumped 3-0 by Sheffield United last weekend which will have angered Sean Dyche and while results haven’t been great recently, their performances have been good.
The same cannot be said for West Ham, who have been playing poorly and getting the results they’ve deserved and come into this game on a five-match win-less streak and were being beaten comfortably 3-0 at home by a struggling Newcastle side, before they started creating chances and put a more respectable 3-2 look to the scoreline.
The visitors defensive process has been exceptionally poor for some time now and are allowing 2.05 xGA per game that increases to 2.25 xGA when it’s an away fixture.
They have some serious issues that can be exploited by a decent Burnley attacking unit.
Selection: Burnley to win @ 6/5.
Southampton vs Everton, Sat 3pm
This game could be the final nail in either Ralph Hasenhüttl or Marco Silva’s coffin, as both managers are in desperate need of a win.
Southampton put in a much more committed performance last weekend despite the 2-1 defeat at the Etihad against Man City, but were fortunate to hang on for as long as they did. Our stats show they were absolutely hammered on xG once again (xG: MCI 3.92 – 0.76 SOU).
While Everton needed a 97th minute equaliser against Spurs – it was the least they deserved based on chances created (xG: EVE 1.10 – 0.53 TOT). The Toffees impressed defensively in that game, and had it not been for Alex Iwobi’s shocking pass that pretty-much gifted Dele Alli his goal, it would have been the perfect defensive performance, as they allowed just 0.24 xGA other than that goal.
Everton sit 17th in the table but rank as the fifth best team in the league according to Xg and their process is impressive (1.57 xGF, 1.17 xGA per game). If they continue performing to this level, it won’t be long before they start to climb the table.
Infogol fancies the visitors to claim a much-needed victory this weekend.
Selection: Everton to win @ 7/5
Tottenham vs Sheffield United, Sat 3pm
Will things ever turn around for Tottenham and Mauricio Pochettino?
Things are as bad as they look for Spurs with Poch’s side fortunate to even be 11th in the table, ranking as only the 15th best team in the league on xG. Their expected goal difference per game is -0.40, which is something we see from teams fighting relegation. They are struggling to create good chances on a regular basis.
Sheffield United moved up to the dizzy heights of sixth with a comfortable win over Burnley last weekend and are one of only two teams – along with Liverpool – who are unbeaten on the road this season.
But the Blades are flattered to have such a decent record on their travels.
Their process away from home is really poor, so we’re not expecting their unbeaten away record to last much longer, even if they make life extremely difficult for a struggling Spurs team.
The value play is to back few goals, or more specifically one team to keep a clean sheet, in what should be a very cagey game.
Selection: Back BTTS ‘No’ @ 19/20
Saturday 3pm treble:
- Burnley to beat West Ham @ 6/5
- Everton to beat Southampton @ 7/5
- BTTS ‘No’ in Tottenham vs Sheff Utd @ 19/20
*Prices correct at time of publishing and the treble pays approx. 9.3/1 at the advertised prices.
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