Chelsea vs Newcastle, Sat, 3pm
Chelsea have four straight wins in all competitions and there is now a feeling that things are beginning to click at Stamford Bridge.
According to Xg, Frank Lampard’s side are where they deserve to be, and are performing in-line with their underlying numbers, which bodes well for the future.
We all know the attacking powers that they possess with 2.06 xGF per game, but defensively things are starting to take shape, with much better performances against Liverpool (1.08 xGA), Brighton (0.79 xGA) and Southampton (1.31 xGA).
While their defensive process is trending in the right direction it’s a bonus they face Newcastle who are a poor attacking side.
Steve Bruce’s team had a huge victory over Manchester United, though they were very fortunate to get the three points (xG: NEW 0.70 – 1.12 MUN).
A draw would have been a fairer reflection of that game.
Nevertheless, Newcastle now have eight points from eight games, which is actually a decent total given they’ve played Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Leicester and Manchester United – five of last season’s top eight.
However, the Magpies are averaging a league-low 0.74 xGF per game and have managed to create just two non-penalty big chances in eight games. They’re unlikely to trouble Chelsea on Saturday.
Defensively they have been pretty good given the opposition – so don’t expect a hammering at the Bridge, but the value lies in ‘No’ in the both teams to score market.
Selection: Back ‘No’ in BTTS @ 4/5
Leicester vs Burnley, Sat, 3pm
Leicester have made a really impressive start to the season, sitting fourth after eight matches, but don’t let anyone tell you that they were unlucky to lose to Liverpool last time after conceding a late penalty.
The Foxes were terrible in both attack and defence and Brendan Rodgers’ side have over-performed in front of goal, netting 14 times from chances equating to 8.65 xGF, with their per game average just 1.08 xGF.
This is a startlingly low number for a team with such good attacking players.
Burnley have made an impressive start to the season, and sit just two points behind Leicester after a fortunate win over Everton before the international break.
There is no doubt that Sean Dyche’s side are an extremely tough nut to crack (1.29 xGA per game), while also posing an attacking threat with the likes of Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood proving a handful week in, week out (1.24 xGF per game).
Don’t expect this to be a cake walk for Leicester and they look over-priced to us, especially given their attacking process so far this season.
Infogol will go under 2.5 goals and give it a 55 per cent chance of happening.
Selection: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 17/20
Wolves vs Southampton, Sat, 3pm
Wolves caused one of the upsets of the season so far beating champions Manchester City 2-0 away.
Back-to-back victories have moved them into mid-table and just four points off the top four. They endured a win-less start to the season and while they were slightly fortunate to get both wins against Watford and Manchester City, they weren’t as bad as their win-less opening six games suggested.
Wolves have been entertaining this season, with chances at both ends the norm and this is likely to occur again here, as they face a Southampton side that are playing exactly the same.
Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side sit above the relegation zone by virtue of scoring more goals than Everton, but the Saints face another season that could turn into a relegation battle.
Infogol expects a high-scoring game here between two sides that create and concede plenty of chances.
The model calculates a 59% (7/10) chance of both teams scoring at Molineux, which represents a great deal of value, especially with the 10/11 (52%) on offer with Paddy Power.
Selection: Back BTTS @ 10/11
*Prices correct at time of publishing and the treble pays approx 11/2 at these prices.
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