Infogol: Our xG models suggest this 11/1 treble is excellent value

Inter-Juve is the centrepiece of their tidy treble across Sunday evening's big Euro fixtures.



Inter Milan vs Juventus

Sunday, 19:45 (UK)

Inter Milan suffered their first defeat of the season in midweek, losing to Barcelona in the Champions League, but it was an impressive display from Antonio Conte’s side.

They have started the Serie A season in fine form, winning all six of their league games, and rightly so after strong performances, but while they have created plenty of chances (1.76 xGF per game), they are still allowing chances (0.90 xGA per game), and have been fortunate to have conceded just 2 goals (5.40 xGA).

Juventus have also made a decent start to the season, and have dropped just two points in their opening six matches, but there remain question marks surrounding Maurizio Sarri’s team, and whether they have improved or not.

The Old Lady sit second in the table, but rank as only the eighth best team according to expected goals, with Juve creating good chances as would be expected (1.56 xGF per game), but also look more vulnerable defensively under the ex-Chelsea manager (1.18 xGA per game).

These games tend to be cagey, as two of the best teams in Italy do battle, but this Derby d’Italia could be the opposite, as both of these sides are expected to play an open style of football, which could lead to goals. Infogol calculates a 53% chance of both teams scoring, which represents a small amount value.

Pick: Both teams to score – 17/20

Barcelona vs Sevilla

Sunday, 20:00 (UK)

Barcelona look to have turned things around of late, and come into this game on the back of three successive wins, beating Villarreal, Getafe and Inter Milan, but have been fortunate in all three matches.

Draws would have been fairer results in both league matches against Villarreal (xG: BAR 0.57 – 0.56 VIL) and Getafe (xG: GET 1.41 – 1.52 BAR), and while they sit 4th in the league, they rate as only the seventh best team in La Liga.

Lionel Messi’s return is a welcome one, but to my eye, he didn’t look fully fit against Inter Milan, and defensively they have been vulnerable so far (1.12 xGA per game), so don’t look as strong as their short price would suggest.

Sevilla have made a strong start under new manager Julen Lopetegui and sit on the same number of points as Barcelona ahead of this game. They rank as the third best team in the league after seven games, with their underlying numbers excellent so far, as they rank as the best defensive team in the league (0.78 xGA per game).

Sevilla offer a great attacking threat also (1.45 xGF per game), and Infogol calculates a 53% chance of Sevilla getting something from their trip to the Camp Nou.

Pick: Sevilla or Draw – 13/8

St Etienne vs Lyon

Sunday, 20:00 (UK)

St Etienne have made a poor start to the campaign, and languish second from bottom of Ligue 1 despite a win over Nîmes, which was an exceptionally fortunate one (xG: NIM 2.00 – 0.76 STE).

Les Verts have found life very difficult this term, with underlying numbers of a relegation threatened team, and numbers that could ultimately cost Ghislain Printant (1.01 xGF, 1.48 xGA per game).

Lyon haven’t performed that much better than their opponents this season, and are in fact just a point above their bitter rivals, winning just two of their eight games. They were unfortunate to lose to Nantes last weekend (xG: NAN 1.21 – 0.51 LYO), but bounced back in the Champions League, beating RB Leipzig, so things are looking up.

However, their process is also extremely poor (1.05 xGF, 0.86 xGA per game), and those figures show just how tight their games are, with few chances at both ends the norm for Sylvinho’s side.

Not only do we have two teams that are struggling to create chances, but this is a fierce derby in which neither side will want to lose, so few fireworks are expected. Because of this, Infogol calculates a 50% chance of under 2.5 goals, so the 7/5 (42%) available represents a great deal of value and should be backed.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals – 7/5

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What do you think?