Expected Goals explained:
Football fans know that a player has a better chance of scoring with a shot from the edge of the six-yard box than a shot from 30+ yards, but on the stats sheet after a game, both are viewed equally in the ‘shots’ column. Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric which assesses every chance created during a game, assigning a likelihood of each individual chance being scored. For more details shoot over to Infogol’s Expected Goals introduction.
Here’s three best bets our Analyst has come up with using the xG model for the Both teams to score market.
Alavés vs Levante, Sunday, 4pm
Alavés were in the top six for a large chunk of La Liga in 2018/19, before free-falling towards the end to finish 11th spot. This wasn’t unexpected as we’d ranked them as the fifth-worst team in the division.
Asier Garitano takes over as manager and they have brought in some attacking talent over the summer, with Lucas Pérez and Joselu joining from the Premier League.
Levante had the worst defence in La Liga by a long way last season, allowing a massive 84.4 xGA (2.22 xGA per game), and were fortunate to only concede 66 goals.
However, they were the seventh-best attacking team (59.0 xGF, 1.55 xGF per game), and have kept hold of Roger (0.66 xGI/90) and José Luis Morales (0.52 xGI/90) who were integral to Levante’s survival last season.
We expect an entertaining match at the Mendizorrotza, and rate both teams to score as 63 per cent chance.
Selection: Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 17/20
Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain, Sunday, 4pm
Rennes opened their Ligue 1 season with a 1-0 away win at Montpellier, but were fortunate to do so according to expected goals, giving up 2.56 xG despite keeping a clean sheet.
Julien Stéphan’s side did beat PSG in the Coupe de France last season, winning on penalties after drawing 2-2 in normal time, displaying their ability to score goals against the best team in the country.
Paris Saint-Germain enter this match on the back of a demolition job against Nîmes in their opening league game, winning 3-0 in what our stats say was thoroughly deserved win (xG: PSG 3.60 – 0.26 NIM).
Thomas Tuchel’s side seem to have continued in the same vein as last season, where they generated a huge 102.9 xGF (2.71 xGF per game), while conceding just 35.2 xGA (0.92 xGA per game).
PSG are expected to win this game comfortably, but despite Rennes losing Ismaila Sarr in the transfer window, they can cause PSG’s defence some problems.
Both teams to score is a 62 per cent chance of ‘Yes’ according to our model.
Selection: Both Teams to Score – ‘Yes’ @ 6/10
Espanyol vs Sevilla, Sunday 6pm
Espanyol finished seventh last season, qualifying for the Europa League, though they were fortunate to do so according to xG, as we rated them as only the ninth best team in La Liga.
The Catalans have lost their best defender in Mario Hermoso, who moved to Atletico Madrid in the summer, and their top goalscorer Borja Iglesias, who has joined Real Betis. However, they’re still a danger going forward with Wu Lei and new addition, Matías Vargas.
Sevilla rated as the second-best attacking team in the league last in 2018/19 (71.8 xGF, 1.89 xGF per game) behind Barcelona, on the way to a sixth-place finish.
Despite losing last season’s top scorer Wissam Ben Yedder to Monaco this week, Sevilla have added a raft of attacking talent to the squad, with Munas Dabbur, Lucas Ocampos, Luuk de Jong, Rony Lopes and Óliver Torres all joining during the transfer window.
Although Iglesias has left the club, Espanyol still look like they can threaten a much-changed Sevilla squad, who may need time to adjust to Julen Lopetegui’s philosophy.
The Infogol model gives a 60 per cent chance to both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Selection: Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 13/20
*Prices correct at time of publishing and the treble pays appox 3.88/1
Recommended Bets:
- Alavés vs Levante – Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 17/20
Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain – Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 6/10
Espanyol vs Sevilla – Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 13/20
