A month or two ago, you’d have been forgiven for thinking it was mad to suggest that backing Everton to keep a clean sheet was a good bet. But as the Spring has rolled around, Marco Silva’s side have found some defensive solidity.
They’ve won four of their last six matches and kept the opposition goalless on five occasions in that run, which includes a 0-0 draw away at Crystal Palace. The Toffees look a different team to the one that won just six matches in all competitions between November and February.
It’s therefore not unreasonable to imagine they’ll be able to shut out a modest Burnley outfit for whom the beach beckons and who haven’t exactly been prolific away from home this season.
We’ve spent much of the above paragraph outlining Everton’s improvement over the past few months, and it’s not difficult to apply the same logic with this market.
Burnley are far from terrible on the road, but nearly three months have passed since Everton lost at Goodison Park (where they held Liverpool to a nil-all draw in March), so it’s not exactly outrageous to believe that Sean Dyche’s side will be lucky to come away with any points on Friday night.
That’s probably why Everton are 4/7 to take the win, but as part of a Same Game Multi we’re not afraid of a short-odds leg.
Pick: Everton to win – 4/7
Despite the relatively short odds, this might be the riskiest pick of the treble.
Everton smashed Man United 4-0 at Goodison a fortnight ago, but you have to go back to December to find the last time they scored more than two goals in a home fixture. For that reason, we’re shying away from the Over 2.5 goals selection from this market and going with Over 1.5 home team total goals.
Combined with our pick for Everton to keep Burnley scoreless, we’re essentially looking for 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 or better. At this point in the season with the home side hunting an Everton Cup victory over Wolves, Watford and Leicester, and the visitors counting down the days until Ibiza 2019, that seems fair.
Odds correct at time of posting.