Liverpool v Porto, Tuesday 20:00
Let’s start of by saying that we believe Liverpool will win this one. But at 1/4, there’s probably not much point telling you to back that market, so we’ll go in search of a bit more value elsewhere.
We’re drawn to a similar market with an extra permutation built-in: Result & Both Teams To Score. It probably won’t take too much to convince you that Liverpool are likely to take a victory at home to a fairly modest Porto side (by Champions League standards), so we’ll move on to the BTTS portion.
In February and very early March, Liverpool went on a run of “BTTS No” results – five in a row in fact. From February 9th to March 3rd, they didn’t concede a single goal, but since then they’ve done exactly the opposite, conceding and scoring in each of their five games in that time. And that includes fixtures against Burnley, Southampton and Fulham, three sides who aren’t exactly prolific.
Significantly, they’ve also won those five matches, triggering “Liverpool to win and BTTS” each time. Although Liverpool have tended to keep things very tight at home in their first two home CL knockout games, we reckon there’s a good chance they’ll keep up their current streak of Result & BTTS wins.
Pick: Liverpool to win and both teams to score – 15/8
Tottenham v Man City, Tuesday 20:00
Spurs supporters won’t draw much confidence from their recent meetings with Man City. They’ve lost three in a row at an aggregate scoreline of 8-2, and haven’t beaten City since October 2016.
If we extend our look at the form, Tottenham have lost four of their last 10 matches in all competitions and, despite their recent win at home to Crystal Palace, it’s not unfair to suggest they’ve crumbled quite badly in February and March. As for City, you have to go back to January 29th to find a loss. They’re on a fourteen-match unbeaten run (13 wins in normal time plus an extra time cup win over Chelsea).
Perhaps Spurs will take confidence from moving into their new stadium, but that’s hardly going to be enough to stop Europe’s most in-form team. There’s also the matter of their visibly tiring players coming up against one of the competition’s strongest overall squads. We’re going conservative with this one and taking the visitors to win.
Pick: Man City to win – 5/6
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