How have the odds shifted on the biggest potential moves of the transfer window?

The speculation is endless. So are the price changes.


Transfer season is now well-and-truly underway, and the punters are lumping frantically on who goes where.

A number of major clubs have wrapped up the signings of players with whom they have been linked strongly in the press.

Yet there are several big names whose futures are still very much in doubt.

The will-they-won’t-they back-and-forth in that regard is ceaseless, and we’ve decided to document how the markets have been changing in order to reflect this.

Here’s our guide to the price changes on three of the most significant players who could end up making the biggest moves in what’s left of the transfer window.

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Kylian Mbappé

Linked most strongly with: Arsenal, PSG, Réal Madrid

Monaco’s precocious French youngster has been front-and-centre in the rumour mill for most of 2017, and the flurry of guesswork surrounding him looks likely to continue right until the closing of the window.

Arsenal: Mbappé was first offered in June, priced at 9/2 to sign for the Gunners. He was as short as 10/3, but remained at around 4 or 5/1 for several weeks until falling off to 33/1 last Tuesday, as it became clear that a move to the Emirates was increasingly unlikely.

Réal Madrid: First priced at 3/1, Mbappé to Madrid shortened to as much as 5/6, but has now swung back out to 9/4. At Evens, he is favoured to remain at Monaco, but according to the odds, the Bernabeu is his most likely destination if he leaves the Principality this summer. Zinedine Zidane is reportedly an admirer, and it would be no surprise to see him back a swoop for his compatriot.

PSG: Originally offered at 20/1 to move to Paris, the odds have since shortened significantly in the aftermath of speculation linking him with France’s premier petroclub. As short as 5/2 at one point, the price has now hit a plateau at 11/2.

Alexis Sanchez

Linked most strongly with: Bayern, Man City, PSG

The enfant terrible of the Arsenal brat pack, there has been as much doubt about the Chilean’s future as there is about the paternity of the King of Pop’s offspring.

In the face of his apparent desire for pastures new, Gooners have been divided about whether they want him to stay, with some naysayers claiming they won’t support a player who exhibits even a hint of wanderlust.

But at 8/11, our traders and punters alike feel he’s more likely to stay than go.

Bayern: First offered at 12/1 to pitch up in Munich, the price has concertinaed regularly, coming in to heavily odds-on at 8/15 in late May, before gradually pulling back out to 16/1 on July 10th.

The price then shortened drastically to 4/7 until a recent move back out to 10/1. But it remains a distinct possibility that his international team-mate, Arturo Vidal, could still convince him to join the Bavarian side.

Man City: The price on Alexis to City has fluctuated massively since the market was first offered in February. Initially priced at 10/1 to make the move from Emirates to Etihad, he was as long as 13/1 and as short as 1/2. In the past few days, odds have lengthened slightly, with the latest being 2/1.

PSG: Considered a very outside bet until recently, starting out at 20/1 and drifting as far as 33/1. Amid some strong speculation and comment from Paris, the odds have been cut hugely over the past week or two, with the current price set at 2/1.

Naby Keita

Linked most strongly with: Liverpool

The Guinean has only ever been realistically linked with Jurgen Klopp’s side, but Reds fans will be wondering if they will ever get their man.

A mass of conflicting information has been slung about in relation to this transfer, with RB Leipzig apparently digging their heels in, yet there seemingly being repeated attempts by Liverpool to get the deal over the line.

This one may drag on right down to the wire.

To stay at current club: The market has been undecided about this one, with Keita mostly favoured to remain in Leipzig. The price has adjusted regularly over recent days, coming in to 10/11 from a high point of 23/10 on Tuesday afternoon.

Liverpool: There hasn’t been too much difference in pricing between Keita staying with RB and moving on to Anfield, meaning that there is probably a 50/50 chance either way.

First priced up at 4/6 on July 3rd, things have remained pretty much the same since then, although on Monday and Tuesday the price dropped dramatically to 1/7 amid fierce speculation. With RB having tried to cool things down, the price has now moved back up to 5/6.

What do you think?