The Hearts Say Wales
The money-hungry heads say England
Having been warned to remove all the hilarious but likely very offensive jokes about tear-gas addiction, the war criminals who pass for Russian fans and the general childish nonsense that is threatening to plague this European Championship we’ll be sticking with the hard facts.
So instead we’ll skip over the usual pointless intro and get straight in to looking at where the money has been going on today’s England v Wales, group B clash. Russia’s late equaliser makes it imperative that Roy Hodgson’s team get a positive result. A win for Wales will see them through to the knock-out stages and although they are heavy underdogs according to the match prices there is a lot of support for the in-form Dragons.
In the match betting market there have only been 30% more individual bets on England () winning than on Wales (), somewhat surprising given that there are roughly 17 times as many English people as there are Welsh. However 75% of total stakes have been hefted on the boys in white.
The translation here is that the general public wants Wales to win but the more serious punters see a better chance of a return backing England. Classic heart versus head stuff.
Wales have beaten England three times but never in a competitive match. England have won all five World Cup and European Championship qualifier and tournament games and are currently on a four-game winning streak against the Dragons, keeping a clean sheet in all four games.
What’s the score?
Unsurprisingly the three most popular correct score bets are all England wins. Topping the list is England to win 2-1 at, a very likely outcome and a sensible choice. Next up is England winning 2-0 atfollowed by England to win 3-1 at.
The fourth most popular correct score bet is Wales to win 2-1 at. One of the biggest losers on the book is Wales to win 4-0 atand one customer, from London of all places, was feeling especially fortuitous when he backed Aaron Ramsey to score first and Wales to win 4-0 at a massive 2500/1. The Arsenal man does have a very respectable 10 goals in 40 games for Wales so he’s not a bad goalscorer pick. It’s the Wales winning 4-0 part that may be this punter’s downfall.
The first goalscorer market has thrown up some interesting results as far as betting patterns go. Gareth Bale atis the clear favourite when it comes to the number of individual bets. In second place in number of bets but leading the way in total stakes is Harry Kane, the favourite to score first in this game at. Wayne Rooney sits in third place on both fronts. Nothing unusual here.
While it’s not unusual to see a long priced defender feature near the top of the list when it comes to potential payouts but in this game three of the top five biggest losers on the book are centre-halves.
Topping the list is Chris Smalling who will cost Paddy Power twice as much as Gareth Bale if he scores first. Numbers-wise he’s the sixth most popular selection in this market but hisprice has encouraged a lot of punters to place smaller but potentially very profitable bets on him. He only has one international goal in 26 England games and he failed to score in 35 Premier League appearances last season so maybe they know something we don’t.
Gary Cahill atand Ashley Williams atround off the top five biggest losers for Paddy Power.