Albania v Switzerland - Saturday June 11
Lens, Live on BBC, 2pm
Albania
Euro 2016 marks the first time that Albania have ever qualified for the finals of a major tournament, and they secured their place in France by virtue of finishing second in Group I alongside Portugal.
In the group stages, they collected 14 points with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, including a 3-0 walkover in the famous “Drone-gate” game with Serbia where violent scenes lead to the abandonment of the game in Belgrade.
Switzerland
This is the 4th time Switzerland have reached the finals of a European Championship and they secured their place in France by finishing second to Roy Hodgson’s England team in Group E.
During those group stages, they won 7 of their 10 games losing home and away to England and once away in Slovenia. Along the way they scored 24 goals, conceded 8 and ended up with a goal difference of +16.
The game
During qualification for Euro 2016, Albania cored at the lowest rate of any qualifying team with just seven goals in seven games and they only actually scored in three out of their seven matches! The idea of them suddenly turning this around and starting to bang them in for fun now that the tournament is underway is fanciful. At the other end, Albania allowed shots more frequently than any other qualifier: 12 shots per match. You have to feel that at this level they may be slightly out of their depth.
In Switzerland, they are up against the team who scored at the joint-third highest rate: 24 goals in 10 games. Their defence may not be amongst the best at Euro 2016, but it does look like they will score goals. One key stat might to do with the second half of matches: Four of the five goals Albania conceded during qualifying came in the final 15 minutes (at 80% this is the highest of any team at the finals). Switzerland however, scored the highest share of goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (45.8% or 11/24) of anyone at the finals.
All signs seem to point towards this game ending in a victory to the Swiss, although it might take them until late on to break down the Albanian defence.
Recommended bets
- Switzerland To Win to Nil @
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