The Premier League of Darts moves to the Motorpoint Arena in Nottingham for Week 6’s action.
Luke Littler is the favourite in the betting odds, followed closely by Luke Humphries. And, as luck would have it, they’ll face off in the first match, penciled in for 7:15pm on Thursday night.
Our Darts guru Ben Smith is back at the oche once again and has two picks for the Luke Humphries v Luke Littler showdown and a value pick from the Outright market.
Darts Tips
7:15pm: Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries +1.5 leg handicap
7:15pm: Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries Most 180s
Night Six Winner – Chris Dobey
Luke Humphries vs Luke Littler – Humphries +1.5 leg handicap
Luke Littler is a clear favourite to defeat world number one Luke Humphries in their quarter-final in Nottingham on Thursday.
Oddsmakers have been left with little choice after the teenager kicked off March by winning the UK Open, night five of the Premier League, and the Belgian Darts Open.
Even though Littler has the edge over Humphries in terms of form and trophies in recent times, Cool Hand has had the better of the head-to-head record since the conclusion of last year’s Premier League.
Humphries has won five of the pair’s last seven meetings, with one of his two defeats to Littler coming in a last-leg decider. He would have covered the 1.5 leg handicap in nine out of their 11 all-time encounters over the best-of-11 format.
Trying to pick holes in Littler’s game is clutching at straws, but his finishing isn’t always up to his usual high standard when he takes on Humphries, who so often takes advantage of even the slightest opening. I’m more than happy to get the 30-year-old on board with a one-leg head start.
Humphries Most 180s
Littler is by far the most frequent 180-hitter on the tour, averaging almost one every other leg.
Humphries hits just shy of one every three legs, but perhaps spurred on by his biggest rival; he tends to keep pace with Littler in terms of maximums when they go toe-to-toe.
They have each won the 180 count in five of their 13 matches on the big stage, with the other three resulting in a tie. It’s a small sample size compared to the large data sets that determine the odds, but I don’t think it is a coincidence that they can’t be separated on this metric.
At the odds quoted in a short format game, it is well worth chancing Humphries to come out on top in the maximums department.
Night Six Winner – Chris Dobey
I am always intrigued by the bigger-priced players on Premier League nights because while Littler and Humphries are the clear top two, the eight participants are all in the competition on merit and more than capable of beating one another in a race to six.
There are some weeks in which backing an outsider makes sense, and the tournament bracket for Nottingham makes this one of those weeks.
Chris Dobey has had hard lines since making the week one final in Belfast. His performances have been fine broadly—especially last week when he was in position to beat Littler, but the world champion rallied from behind to beat Hollywood, who averaged a ton, 6-5.
Dobey has lost four deciding legs over the last fortnight. Coming up with the goods in the most decisive moments has been an issue for him throughout his career, but with such a strong base level, it should turn for him at some point.
With a winnable quarter-final against Rob Cross, who can be volatile, Dobey may get another crack at one of the Lukes, both of whom he was odds-on in-play to beat last time round.
Darts Tips
7:15pm: Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries +1.5 leg handicap
7:15pm: Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries Most 180s
Night Six Winner – Chris Dobey
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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