Sunday’s Darts Final 3 Best Bets:
Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen
Highest checkout score – Over 148.5
Player to get the highest checkout – Michael van Gerwen
Both Players to Hit 11+ 180s Each
8:15pm Sunday: World Matchplay Darts 2024
Winter Gardens, Blackpool
TV: Sky Sports Action and Sky Sports Main Event
Highest checkout score – Over 148.5
The 136 checkout Michael van Gerwen took at 12-12 in the semi-final versus Michael Smith is the most impressive and important finish the Dutchman has taken out all year.
Mighty Mike had been in control early doors, opening up a 9-5 lead, but Bully Boy clawed his way back into it and left himself on tops after 15 darts in the 25th leg. With Smith set to take the lead for the first time, van Gerwen must have thought he was letting the match slip – something he has been guilty of several times this season.
But the Green Machine fired in a three-dart combination which was the killer blow – not only in that leg but in the match. Bully Boy’s spirit was broken and van Gerwen notched his best win of 2024. Hopefully, this sparks a return to form. Mighty Mike at his best is great for the sport and we’ll learn a lot on Sunday night regarding whether or not he is indeed back to somewhere near his best.
The match odds look about right. Luke Humphries is the deserved favourite but now is not the time to back against van Gerwen. Both players registered huge checkouts in the semi-finals, with van Gerwen rattling in a 161 as well as the crucial 136. Humphries took out a 156 in his victory over James Wade, and I suspect we will see more where that came from on finals night.
Player to get the highest checkout – Michael van Gerwen
Among van Gerwen’s ton-plus finishes this week have been checkouts of 146, 151, 136 (twice), and 161. Humphries has a 156 and a 164 to his name but Mighty Mike has been taking out big three-dart combinations with more regularity this week. The player to get the highest checkout market is always a bit of a toss-up when two quality arrowsmiths lock horns, but van Gerwen is priced as a clear underdog so it makes sense to get the Dutchman on side in what I view as more of a 50-50.
Humphries leads the way in checkout percentage on three-darters this year but it’s an area the Green Machine has excelled at throughout his career.
Both Players to Hit 11+ 180s Each
Van Gerwen and Humphries on their ‘A’ game tend to respond well to their opponents playing well and these two could spur one another on here, resulting in the treble 20 bed taking a battering. They each enjoy competing against quicker throwers and if both can settle into a rhythm over this long format, they can hit maximums at a better rate than usual.
The longest match they have played against one another was at the Grand Slam in 2022. They hit 15 180s between them in 26 legs that night. The pair hit the same number of maximums in a 20-leg affair last November at the Players Championship Finals.
If both individuals play to their average maximum per leg rate for the tournament, they will each hit double figures according to the projected total of 31.5 legs. Both to hit 11 each looks worth a shot at a decent price.
Sunday’s Darts Final 3 Best Bets:
Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen
Highest checkout score – Over 148.5
Player to get the highest checkout – Michael van Gerwen
Both Players to Hit 11+ 180s Each
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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