Premier League Darts Tips
7.15pm: Luke Littler v Michael Smith
Luke Littler Most 180s & Win Match
11+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
8.15pm: Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen
Luke Humphries to Win the Match and Throw 7+ 180s
12+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
9.15pm: The Final
Luke Littler 1st, Luke Humphries 2nd forecast
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
After 16 weeks of jostling for position, the Premier League campaign culminates in a four-man playoff at the O2 on Thursday Night. According to recent history, victory in the league phase doesn’t mean a whole lot for Luke Littler, with none of the last three table-toppers going on to lift the trophy.
It bodes well for Michael van Gerwen who finished third again this year, having gone on to win it from that position 12 months ago. Victory over Nathan Aspinall last week secured Michael Smith’s place at Finals Night, and a meeting with Luke Littler in the first game of the night.
It’s Michael v Luke again in the second semi-final as van Gerwen takes on Humphries. Let’s take a look at some best bets for each semi-final and the outright winner.
7.15pm: Luke Littler v Michael Smith
Luke Littler Most 180s & Win Match
Despite only scraping through on the last night, Michael Smith has the best record of all seven players against league-topping Luke Littler, with 5 wins from 7 matches. That said, The Nuke has undeniably had a better campaign than Smith, with more wins, a higher average and more 180s per leg than Bully Boy.
Over a longer format, I expect Luke Littler’s quality to shine through, but Smith’s record against the teenager suggests this could be a closer game than the odds would have you think, with Littler even money to win 10-7 or better. Littler has averaged nearly 0.34 180s per leg, hitting five or more in nine games this year. Smith is lagging behind these numbers with 0.31 180s per leg and failing to hit five or more in a game since March.
11+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
Having a look at the #WhatOddsPaddy markets, I like the look of match 180s and 100+ checkouts, with both of these players able to find the trebles at will. 11+ 180s, 4+ 100+ checkouts and a bull finish could be a fun one to follow in what should be an entertaining curtain-raiser on finals night.
8.15pm: Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen
Luke Humphries to Win the Match and Throw 7+ 180s
The second semi-final sees Premier League debutant Humphries take on the veteran and seven-time winner van Gerwen. By sealing third place last week, MvG might be glad to have avoided Luke Littler, but he certainly claims second-worst prize with a tie against World Champion and Number One Luke Humphries.
Van Gerwen is a ruthless competitor and knows how to win, particularly on Premier League finals night. However, he doesn’t usually have to do it as a near 2/1 underdog, and I expect Humphries’ quality and superior form to get the better of the Dutchman in the end.
Cool Hand leads this quartet in terms of 180s per leg and will no doubt get into a scoring rhythm in the longer format games, making Humphries to win and throw 7+ 180s a very appealing bet.
12+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
Again, I’ll be looking at a longer #WhatOddsPaddy to follow throughout and expect the reliable treble-hitting of Humphries to deliver 180s and high checkouts in this one.
The Final
It’s not exactly going out on a limb to predict a Littler v Humphries final, but it’s hard to look beyond the two best players in the world right now. I’m reluctant to rule out Michael van Gewen entirely – Premier League Darts’ answer to Thanos – but I think this might be the one reality where he doesn’t lift the 2024 trophy.
Humphries finally put to bed his Luke Littler hoodoo in their most recent meeting, ending a run of six defeats since their World Championship final. Six of those seven games have gone to a last leg decider, so it really feels like a toss of a coin to split them again on Thursday night.
You might point to Humphries’ experience giving him a slight edge, but if 17-year-old Luke Littler was going to crumble under pressure, he would have done a long time ago. 1st Luke Littler, 2nd Luke Humphries looks the bet in the Straight Forecast at a slightly more appealing price.
Darts Betting Tips
7.15pm: Luke Littler v Michael Smith
Luke Littler Most 180s & Win Match
11+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
8.15pm: Luke Humphries v Michael van Gerwen
Luke Humphries to Win the Match and Throw 7+ 180s
12+ 180s, 4+ 100+ Checkouts & 1+ Bull Finishes in the Match
9.15pm: The Final
Luke Littler 1st, Luke Humphries 2nd forecast
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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