Darts Betting Tips
Straight forecast: Humphries-Smith
Less than eight months after picking up his first major televised title at the World Grand Prix, Luke Humphries is the favourite to take that tally to five on Premier League Darts play-offs night.
At the time of writing, the world number one can be backed at 11/8 with Paddy Power to complete his second leg of the Triple Crown, and I’m more than happy to take that price.
The latest darts odds are on PaddyPower.com now
Luke has The Green Machine’s number
After a mini blip in form following his World Championship triumph in January, Humphries has arguably hit even greater heights since then in terms of consistency and standard of play – a statement underlined by his 100+ average throughout the entire Premier League.
Nobody will have felt the effects of that more than his semi-final opponent, Michael van Gerwen, who has lost six on the bounce against the Englishman. Five of those meetings were played over a best of 11 legs, and only once did Mighty Mike take it to a decider.
The other of those six encounters came in the final of the German Darts Grand Prix, where Humphries averaged 112.66 as he romped to a spectacular 8-1 victory.
It will take something special to beat the world champion over the longer format (best of 19 legs in the semis, best of 21 in the final). Rob Cross managed it in a thriller in Kiel two weeks ago – averaging 105.56 in the process – but van Gerwen hasn’t been able to hit those heights enough as of late for me to believe he can cause an upset.
A resurgent Smith
We could, however, see a surprise in the other semi-final, as Michael Smith appears to be peaking at just the right time in his bid to get back among the top honours. His career hasn’t quite kicked on since he took home the World Championship in 2023, but having been overshadowed by Luke Littler and Humphries in the interim, he seems to be getting back to something closer to his best.
The man from St Helens looked impressive in winning the Players Championship 9 event earlier this month. He backed that up by not only defeating Nathan Aspinall last week to make it to the Premier League play-offs but also seeing off Littler and Humphries to win night 16.
Last year’s final between van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price was the first time since 2019 that the two favourites in the semis had gone on to meet later in the evening. I think Smith might deprive us of an Ally Pally rematch between the two Lukes, and therefore I like the look of the Humphries-Smith straight forecast.
Is history on The Nuke’s side?
Littler, who ended up four points clear of Humphries to finish top of the Premier League table, has every chance on the night and is not to be dismissed but I just can’t get on board.
Twelve out of the 19 league phase winners have gone on to lift the trophy, but those numbers are somewhat skewed by the dominance of Phil Taylor and van Gerwen from 2005 until 2019. Since then, there have been four winners of the league phase in as many years, and only one has sealed the deal in the play-offs.
Humphries is on a title-collecting mission that doesn’t look like stopping any time soon, and it’s a distinct possibility that when he heads to Blackpool in July, he will have the opportunity to hold all three pieces of Triple Crown silverware at once.
Premier League Darts Betting Tips
Straight forecast: Humphries-Smith
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