Darts Tips: Our 49/1 Acca for Thursday’s Premier League action

Paddy trader Alex Dormor gives us four value picks for tonight's darts in Belfast.

Michael Smith

Premier League Darts Tips

7:15pm – Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries to have the most 180s & Win Match
7:45pm – Michael Smith v Michael van Gerwen – Both Players to Hit 3+ 180s Each
8:15pm – Nathan Aspinall v Gerwyn Price – Gerwyn Price Over 3.5 180s
8:45pm – Rob Cross v Peter Wright – Over +9.5 Total Legs

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Premier League of Darts – Night Nine

7:15pm – Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries to have the most 180s & Win Match

Although Littler has the better of the H2H between these two, it’s Humphries who is in the better form, winning each of the last three nights with apparent ease. A 6-2 defeat to Littler on the opening night is the only game in which Humphries hasn’t won five or more legs, and its so hard to look past the World Champ to win again this week.

While they’re both big scorers, Luke Littler is far more likely to switch down the board and use the 19s. While Littler’s 0.32 180s per leg in the Premier League is massive, it is still dwarfed by Humphries’ averaged 0.4. Humphries is also much more consistent with his 180s, hitting 4+ in 61% of his games (11 of 18), while Littler has only managed four in 33% of his (5 of 15). Humphries’ consistency is too compelling for this one and I expect him to overcome Littler in an entertaining, high-scoring game.

7:45pm – Michael Smith v Michael van Gerwen – Both Players to Hit 3+ 180s Each

The Lukes are followed by the Michaels in the second match as MvG looks to end a run of three nights without a win. Although he’s had a tough run of late, he has run into a 114 average from Littler and a 103 average from Price in the last two weeks. Smith, meanwhile, has reached the final in two of the last three nights, with all three defeats coming at the hands of Luke Humphries.

These two have met twice already in this year’s Premier League, with both games going to a deciding leg, and 16 180s between them. Michael Smith has hit three or more maximums in 73% of his matches (11 of 15) while MvG is only narrowly behind him with 71% (10 of 14) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of 180s each and possibly another deciding leg this time around.

8:15pm – Nathan Aspinall v Gerwyn Price – Gerwyn Price Over 3.5 180s

If you’d had to predict the table in February, you’d probably have had these two the other way round. Bouncing back from losing his first three games, Aspinall fully deserves his spot in the Top 4, reaching the final in three of the next four nights and the semi-final last week. Price, meanwhile, has picked up just four points since reaching the final on Night One.

For Gerwyn Price, it feels like the results haven’t quite matched the performances so far, hence he goes into this one as favourite, although 8/13 feels like it still underestimates Aspinall a touch. Price has started to find his scoring form, with 15 180s in his last three games, making the currant odds on Over 3.5 180s a very appealing price.

(3.5)

8:45pm – Rob Cross v Peter Wright – Over +9.5 Total Legs

Peter Wright had been showing signs of competing in this year’s Premier Legaue, with a 103 average against Littler on Night Four and a 6-5 win over Gerwyn Price on Night Six. However, two batterings at the cool hands of Luke Humphries have set Snakebite back again.

These two have met only once in this campaign, a 6-3 victory on Night One which featured just one break of throw. Just 25% of Cross’ legs have come against the throw – the lowest proportion of all eight players – so he’s unlikely to run away with this one. Before back-to-back meetings with Luke Humphries, Wright’s previous four games had featured at least 10 legs, and I’d expect another close affair here with Over 9.5 legs a very appealing price.

(9.5)

With the top half of the draw looking particularly competitive, those in the bottom half will all fancy their chances of reaching the final in Belfast. With results starting to turn in his favour in recent weeks, I fancy Gerwyn Price to go all the way on Night 9. Luke Humphries is favourite to make a fourth final in a row, with Price to beat Humphries in the Final a 14/1 shot in the Straight Forecast market.

Premier League Darts Tips

7:15pm – Luke Humphries v Luke Littler – Luke Humphries to have the most 180s & Win Match
7:45pm – Michael Smith v Michael van Gerwen – Both Players to Hit 3+ 180s Each
8:15pm – Nathan Aspinall v Gerwyn Price – Gerwyn Price Over 3.5 180s
8:45pm – Rob Cross v Peter Wright – Over +9.5 Total Legs

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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