It’s the World Darts Championship final at the Ally Pally tonight and those inclined towards fancy dress and writing rude words on A4 sheets of paper for the telly should be in for a treat if the last two weeks of tungsten tussles are anything to go by.
Former champion Peter Wright has fought through a couple of titanic battles to make it to a third decider of his career, the most recent a semi-final for the ages against two-time champ Gary Anderson 6-4.
Peter Wright v Michael Smith
Tonight, 8pm. Sky Sports Darts
Meanwhile, Michael Smith dispatched James Wade in his semi-final 6-3, but was pushed all the way in the quarters by last year’s champion Gerwyn Price, and also went to extra legs to get past Jonny Clayton in the fourth round.
It all means we could have an all-time great final to look forward to tonight – and it’d be even better if we found a few decent bets for it…
NAP: Total 180s – Over 32.5
Snakebite’s semi-final saw him post a sensational 24 maximums over the course of 10 sets, a record-breaking figure, and, not surprisingly, he also produced his best average of the competition, hitting over 104 per visit to the oche against Anderson.
He needed to be at his best because of how well The Flying Scotsman was playing, and Michael Smith ought to push him just as hard – or harder – in the title match.
Bully Boy has nailed 16 180s in his last two matches and is averaging almost the exact same score for three darts as his opponent, 100.65 to Wright’s 100.66, throughout the tournament. Provided the match goes a reasonable distance – and it should given the way both players have played so far – over on the 180s total should come in for us.
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NB: #WhatOddsPaddy – Michael Smith to have 5 or more 100+ checkouts
While Wright has generally hit the higher checkouts of the two finalists, Smith has been the more consistent of them when it comes to taking out three-figure finishes, with 14 in the tournament so far, compared to Snakebite’s nine.
Bully Boy’s nine-set quarter-final versus the Iceman Price saw him hit four ton-plus finishes, his most of the tournaments so far, and he hit three versus Wade in the semi-final.
With the winner required to win seven sets to claim the crown here, that should mean there’s more opportunity for Smith to continue his deadly finishing and 5 or more finishes of over 100 looks tempting.
Long-shot: Correct Score – Michael Smith 7-4
This is Smith’s second final at the Ally Pally following a bruising 7-3 defeat to Michael van Gerwen in 2019. He has a record of making it to major finals and losing, with seven losses in deciders to his name, and Peter Wright also has a very impressive record against the 31-year-old, winning nine of their last 11 meetings, with two draws the other results.
So how can Smith possibly win here? Well, the match odds tell you that this is a very even contest despite Wright’s recent head-to-head supremacy, as do the stats, with each player almost matched score-for-score throughout the tournament.
While some claim Smith lacks the “mental strength” to win big tournaments because of those losses, lesser players would’ve failed to fight their way back to another final at all. Peter Wright also faced similar jibes before he won his world title in 2020, and Smith now is almost 20 years younger than Snakebite was then.
Also, Bully Boy has been playing sensationally this week. Wright has hit the same standard but looked strained against Anderson in the semi-final and may have been forced to dig too deep there.
While these two can go leg-for-leg, Smith might have the extra reserves to pull ahead in the latter stages and a 7-4 scoreline is a tempting price, especially as finals at the Ally Pally rarely go the distance.
World Darts Championship Final tips:
- NAP: Total 180s – Over 32.5
- NB: #WhatOddsPaddy – Michael Smith to have 5 or more 100+ checkouts
- Long-shot: Correct Score – Michael Smith 7-4
*All lines and odds quoted are correct at time of publication but subject to change
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