South Africa v New Zealand Betting Tips
South Africa to win
Trent Boult To Be New Zealand top wicket-taker
Devon Conway Under 31.5 Runs
No first innings century
New Zealand higher score after 15 overs
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
South Africa to win
South Africa may be two points clear of New Zealand with a better net run rate but there is staggeringly little to separate the two when you dig deeper into the stats. New Zealand have conceded only 150 more runs across the tournament yet South Africa concede more runs per over (5.82) than the Black Caps (5.56).
The Proteas have taken three more wickets (57) than the Kiwis (54) but their wickets lost (43) is higher than NZ (35). Even their head-to-head since the start of 2015 doesn’t help – 10 matches played, South Africa 5 – 5 New Zealand. But tournaments are about form, and New Zealand have lost their last two while South Africa are building momentum. We’ll kick off with South Africa to win.
Boult To Be New Zealand top wicket-taker
Trent Boult is very good at bowling to right-handers. And unfortunately for South Africa their top order is often full of them. 21% of Boult’s deliveries to right-handers in ODIs have induced a false shot, so it is safe to assume that a full over would see at least one poor stroke.
Boult’s strike rate when a batter plays a false shot against him is 8.5, so if Boult is bowling at right-handers he is going to take wickets. Add this to Boult’s productive record against South Africa’s best left-hander, Quinton de Kock (84 balls, five wickets, average 13.60). Boult to be New Zealand’s top wicket-taker looks a smart play.
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Devon Conway Under 31.5 Runs
Devon Conway has continued to fall away since his remarkable 152* in the tournament opener against England. In five innings since the he has only managed 125 runs. Furthermore, this South African attack has bowled better to left-handers at this World Cup (averaging 17.00) than right-handers (average 28.89). We fancy Conway to score under 31.5 runs.
No first innings century
In nine ODIs held at Pune there has only ever been one century in the first innings – KL Rahul’s 108 against England in 2021. Interestingly there have been 17 first innings 50s at Pune, but clearly there is something that makes it difficult to convert starts into big scores. We’re backing no century to be scored in the first innings.
New Zealand higher score after 15 overs
New Zealand have been more productive in the early overs of their batting innings. Their average score after 15 overs is 64.75, compared to South Africa’s 49.20. They’ve also lost two fewer wickets in the 0-15 over phase and have been scoring runs at a faster rate. We fancy New Zealand to have a higher score after 15 overs.
South Africa v New Zealand Betting Tips
South Africa to win
Trent Boult To Be New Zealand top wicket-taker
Devon Conway Under 31.5 Runs
No first innings century
New Zealand higher score after 15 overs
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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