Boxing Betting Tips
- All fights in the early hours of Sunday morning (BST)
Sunday, 2am: Caleb Plant v Trevor McCumby
Plant to win the fight in round 9
Sunday, 2am: Erislandy Lara v Danny Garcia
Lara points or decision
Sunday, 4am: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Edgar Berlanga
Alvarez to win the fight in round 9
A knockdown in round 5
Big cards have been slim pickings over the summer, but boxing’s marquee name, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, is back in the ring this weekend. He faces unbeaten American Edgar Berlanga for the super middleweight crown.
And that’s not all.
The undercard in Vegas features middleweight titleholder Erislandy Lara versus Danny Garcia, and former champ Caleb Plant takes on Trevor McCumby.
Caleb Plant v Trevor McCumby
Plant to win the fight in round 9
TV: DAZN, 2am
This is a crossroads fight between a former super middleweight champ and an unbeaten prospect. But Plant, 32, is far from washed up, and McCumby, 31, has a padded record and long periods of inactivity because of a drug ban and a severe knee injury.
Caleb ‘Sweethands’ lost to Canelo and David Benavidez in his last three bouts, but there’s no shame in being beaten by those elite fighters. McCumby loads up and flies in, but that novice approach won’t catch out a man of Plant’s experience and dedication. The former champ is not known for his power, but he’ll keep catching McCumby more often as the contest progresses. I also fancy Plant grinding out a late stoppage win.
Erislandy Lara v Danny Garcia
Lara points or decision
TV: DAZN PPV, 2am
This fight isn’t what it seems – Lara, the middleweight champ, is 41, and Garcia was at his best when he was the 140-pound boss. But don’t mistake that this isn’t elite boxing for what should be a cracking fight. Lara has KO wins in his last three outings, while Garcia has never been stopped and carries plenty of pop.
Garcia, 36, has never fought an opponent larger than 154 pounds, but I don’t see size as a factor here – Lara moved up from super welterweight as well, and he is only an inch taller than Danny.
Another non-factor is age. Lara has lived the life of a pro outside of the ring, and the Cuban southpaw still has a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove. With both men thinking the other has frailties, I think both will meet in the centre of the canvas and hold their feet.
His timing might not be sharp, with just one fight in the last three years. But Garcia was a world-class counterpuncher. Lara has been more active and diligent, and the opponents he’s struggled with over the years have been volume punchers. I think Lara will show off his skills and get the nod from the judges after an epic battle.
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Edgar Berlanga
TV: DAZN, 4am
After 65 fights and umpteen title contests, there’s no doubt that Alvarez, 34, is the premier name in the sport, but some pundits are questioning whether the unified super middleweight champ is past his best. It isn’t just his age or the miles on the clock. It’s also that Canelo hasn’t won inside the distance in his last five fights.
Berlanga, 27, is a big outsider, but with youth and power in both hands, he’s a worthy challenger for the crown. To win, he’ll have to beat the Guadalajara great on Mexican Independence weekend at the T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas strip, a venue Alvarez has made his home in recent years.
Alvarez To Win The Fight In Round 9
The Brooklyn banger notched up 16 first-round KO wins in his first 16 bouts, but since then, he’s only won inside the distance once in six bouts. Berlanga is a bully inside the ring and looks in tip-top shape for the biggest fight of his career. However, his lack of experience and ring craft means most fans aren’t giving him much chance of causing the upset.
The stage is set for a classic Canelo performance – apply front foot pressure with a low output of power punching, and when his opponent is demoralised, start turning the screw. In recent years, Canelo has taken out the likes of Plant, Billy Joe Saunders, and Sergey Kovalev with these tactics, and he’s odds-on to win inside the distance again.
Alvarez found KOs against Plant and Kovalev in round 11 and Saunders in round 8, but he stopped Avni Yildirim in just three rounds. Berlanga is closer to the class of Plant than Yildirim, but Canelo isn’t quite the same finisher as he was a few years ago, so I’m backing the flame-haired champ to win in rounds 9-10.
A Knockdown In Round 5
Despite the lack of KOs on Canelo’s form sheet, he has knocked down each of his last three opponents. Those knockdowns came in rounds 5, 7 and 4 respectively and show that even if the Mexican isn’t at his very best anymore he is still a world class operator.
Berlanga’s CV doesn’t have an elite name, but his record shows that he has been dropped, and a couple of foes have also wobbled the Puerto Rican-American. Berlanga’s size won’t bother Alvarez, who regularly faces bigger men, and Paddy is offering generous odds on all middle-round knockdowns in his #WhatOddsPaddy bets.
Boxing Tips
Caleb Plant v Trevor McCumby
Plant to win the fight in round 9
Erislandy Lara v Danny Garcia
Lara points or decision
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Edgar Berlanga
Alvarez to win the fight in round 9
A knockdown in round 5
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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