Boxing Tips: A 25/1 shot among our best Artur Beterbiev v Callum Smith bets

Our boxing tipster Matt Gipon has three value picks for Saturday night's big bout in Canada.

artur beterbiev, jan 2024

Boxing Tips

Artur Beterbiev To Win in Round 11 – 12
Artur Beterbiev to Win & both Fighters to be Knocked Down
Callum Smith to Win in Round 4 – 6

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Artur Beterbiev v Callum Smith
Sunday, 4am
Videotron Centre in Quebec City, Canada
TV: Sky Sports

    The scariest man in boxing has an icy fortress in Quebec City, so that’s where Britain’s Callum Smith has to go to win the three light heavyweight belts held by the formidable Artur Beterbiev this weekend.

    The fight was originally scheduled for a pleasant summer evening in August but the Canada-based Russian was told he needed an operation on a nasty-sounding infected bone in his jaw before he could enter the ring again.

    It’s getting down as cold as -20 degrees Celsius in the French-speaking province this week, but Smith’s flight has arrived, Beterbiev has been patched up, and the pair of world-class punchers are ready to put on a show.

    Beterbiev To Win In Round 10 – 12

    Beterbiev has a perfect record as a professional of 19 fights, 19 wins, and 19 KOs. He picked up his first strap in just his 12 paid contest in 2017, and since then he’s taken belts off unbeaten Ukrainian Oleksandr Gvozdyk and teak-tough American Joe Smith Jr.

    But Artur isn’t seen as invincible – he’s been dropped before, he’s coming off an injury, and he turns 39 before the end of the month. The infected jawbone isn’t an injury that would normally affect boxers long term, but spending time recovering in hospital this year might be a concern for a veteran like Beterbiev.

    Despite the operation the Russian fought 12 months ago and six months before that, while Smith has only fought twice in the last three years. Callum, 33, scored his best win against George Groves in 2018 and the only truly world-class opponent since then was Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, who beat up the Scouser over a lopsided 12 rounds.

    The shellacking from Canelo was Smith’s first and only defeat, and he toughed it out to hear the final bell. Four of Beterbiev’s last five opponents have gone into the 8th round or deeper, and that includes the limited European-level Adam Dienes and the slightly chinny Marcus Browne, so I think Smith has the minerals to go at least as far as them.

    It won’t surprise anyone that there’s a tip for Beterbiev to win by KO, but you can still get a really nice price on a late stoppage win for the champ.

        Beterbiev To Win & Both Fighters To Be Knocked Down

        The reason the Russian monster is such a big favourite isn’t just his heavy hands, or his relentless pressure as he grows into fights, it is his boxing ability and IQ – in his long amateur career Beterbiev won a gold and silver at consecutive world championships and he went to two Olympics.

        I can’t see a tactic that makes Smith favourite, but maybe his best chance is to use his three-inch height advantage and five-inch reach advantage to jab and run. Realistically, it wouldn’t work and I don’t think he’ll try it either – Callum has a 72% KO ratio and he’ll fancy his chances.

        If the champ has a chink in his armour it is probably defense, and he might be slightly more vulnerable in the early rounds. Smith’s former stablemate Callum Johnson boxed Beterbiev in 2018 and dropped him in the second round with a clubbing left hook – a shot that Smith specialises in.

        And in Artur’s most recent outing, he was wobbled a couple of times by another Brit, Anthony Yarde. I can see Smith catching Beterbiev coming in, and I can certainly see Beterbiev shaking Smith – #WhatOddsPaddy has loads of great bets but I really like the look of the champ to win and both men to be knocked down.

        Smith To Win In Round 4 – 6

        Smith was the world champion at super middleweight but since moving up to light heavy he’s beaten two decent opponents both inside four rounds. The Liverpool favourite always had to cut so much weight that his punch power might be even better at 175 pounds.

        Travelling to Montreal and going up the road shouldn’t be a problem for Smith, whose best wins have come at Madison Square Garden, New York and in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – I think ‘Mundo’ will be full of confidence.

        I think if Smith is going to win he’ll have to hurt Beterbiev early – the #WhatOddsPaddy bet for Beterbiev to be Knocked Down in any of Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 caught my eye, but I think the best bet on Smith is for him to win in rounds 4-6 at absolutely astronomical odds.

          Artur Beterbiev v Callum Smith

          Artur Beterbiev To Win in Round 11 – 12
          Artur Beterbiev to Win & both Fighters to be Knocked Down
          Callum Smith to Win in Round 4 – 6

          *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

          Read More

          THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW 

          What do you think?