Boxing Tips
Alvarez to Win in Rounds 9 – 12
A Knockdown in Round 11
Alvarez to Win in Round 11 & Charlo to be Knocked Down in Round 10
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Jermell Charlo
Sunday, September 30, 4:15am:
TV: DAZN
We’ve seen it on the women’s side but this weekend is the first time two undisputed champs go head-to-head in the men’s game – Canelo, the super middleweight supremo, takes on super welterweight boss Charlo for all the 168-pound hardware. Paddy has installed the flame-haired Mexican as a big betting favourite but the American shouldn’t be written off.
Jermell is moving up two weight divisions – 14 pounds – to make the fight, and although it’s a talking point it probably won’t be a factor. Charlo still has a height and reach advantage, and his same-sized twin brother has been a middleweight for some time. In boxing history there have been 19 notable bouts between a champ and a two-division jumper, and 12 were won by the smaller man.
Both boxers are patient and I expect both will look to counter punch in the early sessions. Charlo let it slip in Showtime’s ‘All Access’ show that he intends to use his speed and keep moving, while Alvarez will be happy to take the centre of the ring, draw leads and try to respond with heavy fire.
Canelo has been pro for 18 years since he debuted as a 15-year-old – that’s 59 wins, two losses and two draws. He’s never been stopped or even dropped despite being in with all-time great punchers like Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev, and the one result I can’t see is a Charlo KO win.
The reflexes might be slowing down a touch for Alvarez, and in 2022 he was comprehensively beaten by Dmitrii Bivol at light heavyweight, but he will still bring all that experience, accuracy and power to the T-Mobile Arena in Vegas.
Alvarez to Win in Rounds 9 – 12
Charlo has a highlight KO record – big right hands, sharp left hooks and savage uppercuts – but the punch that could keep him competitive in this fight is the jab. He’s a good all rounder but his best route to victory is keeping Canelo away with a hard straight left.
The Texas-based ‘Iron Man’ has lost once and drawn once in 37 bouts, but he’s avenged both of those blemishes with late KO wins in the rematches. Maybe slightly more worrying for Charlo is that he was dropped by mediocre Charles Bellamy back in 2014.
I expect a close fight for as long as it lasts. Canelo tends to warm into fights and Charlo could take a small lead early on, but you should never write the Mexican off, even to get a KO win – the super middle champ has stopped a staggering 13 opponents in round 8 or later – including Caleb Plant, Billy Joe Saunders and Sergey Kovalev in recent title contests.
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A Knockdown in Round 11
Charlo is from the same high-performance camp as Errol Spence, but you wonder if the squad has taken a blow to its confidence after his devastating defeat to Terence Crawford. Spence was a little too upright and predictable in his loss, and the same could be said for Charlo at times.
Jermell has not really faced someone like Canelo, but the man from Guadalajara has met a few fighters like the American. Plant matches up well with Charlo for size, speed and probably tactics, and Alvarez eventually pinned him to the canvas in the 11th round. Betting on a knockdown in that round offers potentially knockout returns.
Alvarez to Win in Round 11 & Charlo to be Knocked Down in Round 10
A fight with Canelo is like a fight with no other in today’s boxing landscape – the media attention and commitments, the crowds, and the challenge of scraping with one of the pound-for-pound best. Charlo has presented himself as a bit calmer and more respectful than normal, but I think the size of the event is weighing on him slightly.
In a close contest it’s small margins that matter, and if we add Canelo’s superior experience then he has to be favourite to walk away this weekend with more straps than a sherpa’s backpack. I like the late stoppage win for Canelo as a bet because it is great value, but if you really want to boost those odds have a look in #WhatOddsPaddy for the knockout and knockdown combo.
Boxing Tips
Alvarez to Win in Rounds 9 – 12
A Knockdown in Round 11
Alvarez to Win in Round 11 & Charlo to be Knocked Down in Round 10
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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