Boxing Tips: A 30/1 pick tops our Best Bets for Saturday’s Usyk v Dubois bout

Top boxing tipster Matt Gipon reckons he's found the value in Saturday night's Big Fight in Wroclaw.

Oleksandr Usyk



Usyk Points Or Decision
Dubois Points Or Decision

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Oleksandr Usyk v Daniel Dubois

Saturday, 10pm
Tv: TNT Sports

As war rumbles on in Ukraine, Oleksandr Usyk represents his country once more as the world heavyweight champion defending his titles against Britain’s Daniel Dubois. The showdown is set for Stadion Wroclaw in Poland, and the winner will, hopefully, face Tyson Fury for the undisputed crown in the next six months.

Dubois, 25, is a burgeoning talent in the glamour division but he’s still really just a novice at the championship level. When ‘Dynamite’ Dan did face genuine top 10 heavyweight Joe Joyce in 2020, he battled well in an even contest until the ‘Juggernaut’ busted-up Dubois’ eye and forced the stoppage in the tenth round.

Usyk, 36, has been a champion in the professional code for seven years already, and before that he capped off a 300-plus amateur boxing career with Olympic gold at London 2012. The Ukrainian master has seen and done it all, but from Dubois’ perspective it means there are miles on the clock and hours of video tape to study.

The champ’s pair of fights with Anthony Joshua are the most instructive for Dubois – AJ won rounds when he didn’t show too much respect, when he applied pressure and committed to hard shots. That style of fighting is Dubois’ “MO”, and if you get into range against Usyk you’ll find his head movement isn’t as good as his footwork.

Usyk has never been super fast, so age won’t be a factor, and he’s still slick, accurate and clever – the man with the belts is rightly a big favourite but Dubois will have more success in this fight than many people think.

Usyk Points Or Decision

Since Dubois unravelled against Joyce he’s been on a roll of four wins, all in four rounds or less. In fact, ‘Triple D’ has 18 wins inside five rounds and he’s only been past the fifth session twice – he beat ‘Kingpin’ Kevin Johnson on points over the 10-round distance and that late KO defeat to Joyce.

The young Londoner is still very inexperienced – he’s never been the full 12 rounds and this is his first shot at a belt. In comparison, the unbeaten Usyk has been the championship distance seven times and this will be his tenth world title bout.

But, with a KO ratio of 65% and only two stoppage wins in his last seven contests – a period of five-and-a-half years – Usyk shouldn’t be feared. Those knockouts were against budget heavyweight Chazz Witherspoon in round seven, and the slightly chinny Tony Bellew in round eight – hardly devastating performances.

Liverpool’s Bellew was actually winning the fight at the time of the stoppage, while Usyk managed just a split decision victory over Joshua in their second contest, a close mixed decision win over Mairis Briedis, and he only beat Derek ‘Dell Boy’ Chisora by a couple of rounds.

Truthfully though, Oleksandr always seemed well in control of those fights without blowing the opponent away. Where Dubois has some combination of size, speed and youth over all those names, he is very orthodox, and Usyk knows all of the tricks to beat a very good but straightforward boxer.

Dubois’ loss to Joyce was dramatic but it was a serious eye injury that caused the stoppage, and if his orbital hadn’t shattered he surely would have heard the final bell. As with other Usyk fights, I expect this bout will be close until the midway point, but then the master will win the decisive rounds to take the decision.


Daniel Dubois

Dubois Points Or Decision

I think Paddy has overcooked his big prices for a Dubois upset in Poland, and even though I fancy Usyk to win, I can’t ignore a ‘Dynamite’ bet.

The young man from Greenwich is confident he can get the victory on Saturday, and he has the attributes to be a world champion – all it takes is one heavyweight blow to change everything – just ask Anthony Joshua.

There’s also the fact that Usyk can’t ignore the things that are happening in his home country, and that can’t be considered ideal preparation. Usyk is tough and proud, and if Dubois manages to hurt the champ I’m not confident he would finish him. Check out the stupendous odds on a Dubois decision win.


Usyk Points Or Decision
Dubois Points Or Decision

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.