Boxing tips: We’ve a 16/1 shout for Josh Taylor v Teofimo Lopez on Saturday night

Top tipster Matt Gipon reckons we could see a draw on Saturday.

BOXING TIPS

Teofimo Lopez to Win by Points or Decision
Draw
Will Both Fighters be Knocked Down? Yes

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

A couple of years ago this fight would have been huge, but a couple of dodgy performances and just one measly world title on the line means that Taylor versus Lopez has lost some shine in the mainstream media – don’t worry, Paddy is still rolling out the red carpet for us.

Sunday, June 11 – 4am
TV: Sky Sports

TEOFIMO LOPEZ TO WIN BY POINTS OR DECISION

The last two years have been tough for Taylor – he’s had injuries, making weight has been an issue, and in the one fight he did have he was very lucky to get the decision. In 2021 Taylor was the undisputed super lightweight champion with four belts, but because of his inactivity three of those titles have been dished out to other contenders.

The hardest thing of all must have been getting slaughtered on social media for winning a fight and then getting pelters because the rematch fell through. Everyone except two judges and Taylor’s family thought Jack Catterall beat the Scot in February last year – the Lancashire man was too accurate and even dropped Josh in the 8th round.

Lopez’s story in the last couple of years isn’t dissimilar – he became the unified lightweight champ after winning in imperious fashion against the legendary Vasyl Lomachenko in 2020, but he lost his belts in a split decision in 2021 to the less notable George Kambosos.

The American has come back with two wins in the last 10 months after moving up a weight division, but he hasn’t looked impressive. Back in December, solid contender Sandor Martin caused Teo more problems than expected, and even dropped the former champ in the second round – the Spanish fighter is a southpaw like Taylor but doesn’t have the Scot’s raw power.

One concern Team Taylor have is the weight – Josh said after the Catterall match, and even before that fight, that it was his last bout at 140 pounds – it has been 16 months since that night, but on Saturday in New York Taylor needs to get his body down to that limit again.

With Taylor only scoring one KO in his last five wins, and Lopez only one KO win in his last four bouts, I think this contest is going the distance. The champ has shown real grit when he’s faced big cuts and swelling, while the challenger comes on strong in the later rounds even in tough fights – both will be extremely well conditioned and have steely resolve.

I expect both men to be more switched on than they have been in their most recent contests, and I expect both to be back to somewhere near their best. It is a tough call but I think Lopez’s dynamism might just be enough to nick him the result.

DRAW

The wildcard in the Teofimo camp is Lopez Sr, the ex-lightweight champion’s father and trainer. The relationship between the pair always seems strained and the impression is that Teo would benefit from a calmer voice than his dad’s.

Even if Lopez is at his best it is so hard to rule out Taylor – the 2012 British Olympian has managed to find a way to win against world class Americans Regis Prograis and Jose Carlos Ramirez, and technically he has still never lost as a pro.

I am sure it will be a tight fight, so tight in fact that I could easily see the judges splitting the decision – and when that’s the case the draw tends to be good value.

WILL BOTH FIGHTERS BE KNOCKED DOWN? YES

Both men have been dropped in their most recent fights – Taylor by Catterall and Lopez by Martin – and both are sharp punchers that have dropped or stopped recent foes. I can’t see a KO but I can see high-class war and each man taking an eight-count.

BOXING TIPS

Teofimo Lopez to Win by Points or Decision
Draw
Will Both Fighters be Knocked Down? Yes

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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