Boxing Tips: 4 punchy punts on the weekend’s boxing including Okolie v Light

Our tipster Matt Gipon has been through the weekend cards digging out the best bets.

Lawrence Okolie

Boxing Tips

Lawrence Okolie v David Light – Okolie to win in round 4-6
Frazer Clarke v Bogdan Dinu – Clarke to win in round 3-4
Andrew Cain v Ionut Baluta – Cain to win points or decision
David Benavidez v Caleb Plant – Fight will go the distance

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

LAWRENCE OKOLIE V DAVID LIGHT – OKOLIE TO WIN IN ROUND 4-6

Saturday, 10pm
TV: Sky Sports Action

World cruiserweight champ Okolie has been busy changing trainers, promoters and managers, so he has only had time for one title defence in the last year-and-a-half. Luckily for the Londoner, his mandatory challenger Light is a tailor-made opponent to return and look good against. 

The New Zealand 200-pounder is coming to the Manchester Arena off the back of his best win as a pro – a split decision victory over middling prospect Brandon Glanton in December. Other than that result, Light’s other 19 wins have been thin on name recognition, and, although he was a decent amateur, he wasn’t in the same class as Okolie’s Olympic pedigree. 

The champ’s most recent fight was a clear points victory against Michal Cieslak, but before that he was on a seven-fight KO streak, with all stoppages coming in rounds 2-7 – Okolie even dropped Cieslak in round 5. 

Light is a solid boxer but he tends to stand in the range “The Sauce” likes to operate at, and he probably doesn’t have quick enough feet to get inside. The away man is tough but he was floored in his most recent contest, and I think he’ll go the way most of Okolie’s other opponents have gone – lights out in the middle rounds. 

FRAZER CLARKE V BOGDAN DINU – CLARKE TO WIN IN ROUND 3-4

Saturday, 9pm
TV: Sky Sports Action

The start to “Big Fraze’s” professional career has been glacial – since the Olympic bronze medal in 2021 he’s had five fights, and only the scrap with seasoned veteran Kamil Sokolowski was a worthwhile experience for a man of his schooling. But Dinu, with 20 wins and just four losses, is the right level of opponent this weekend in Manchester.

The Romanian heavyweight has 16 KO wins, and his only losses have been to guys in the top 20 – if Clarke is off his game Dinu could cause him problems. 

In 2021, Daniel Dubois blitzed bulky Bogdan in just two rounds, and Clarke will be looking to do similar. The Brit doesn’t quite have the hand speed of his compatriot Dubois, but Dinu has been stopped each time he’s lost – I think Clarke gets the KO in the early rounds.

ANDREW CAIN V IONUT BALUTA – CAIN POINTS OR DECISION

Saturday, 9pm
TV: BT Sport 1 

Scouse super bantamweight Cain said he wants a “proper fight”, and that is just what he’s got – Baluta is experienced, awkward and relentless, and he’s never been stopped. Cain’s short professional record reads 10 fights, 10 wins, with nine by KO, but this bout in Telford on Saturday is a massive step up in class. 

 In the last three years, Baluta has boxed 45 rounds, including a mixed decision loss to Michael Conlan and a points win over former world champ TJ Doheny. In his career, Cain has boxed 25 rounds, and there isn’t a single opponent who would get close to British title level.   

Although the Romanian is awkward, the home man’s head movement and hand speed are the perfect antidote. I think Baluta may have to survive the early rounds but I think he has the ring smarts to make it difficult for Cain – take the great odds on the Brit winning by decision.

DAVID BENAVIDEZ V CALEB PLANT – FIGHT WILL GO THE DISTANCE 

Sunday, 5am

It’s not a world title fight but it’s good enough to be one – former super middleweight champs Benavidez and Plant meet in Vegas this weekend to settle who the best 168lb boxer is after Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Plant actually suffered his first career defeat with 11th round KO by Canelo in 2021, while Benavidez is still unbeaten. 

Benavidez is an unusually high volume punching big man, he tends to start slow and pick up momentum before his power and intensity get to his opponents – “El Bandera Roja” has won by KO in 23 of his 26 contests, but he’s been inactive, and his last fight was 10 months ago. 

In the other corner, Plant has rapid hands and a cool head – he has more power than his KO ratio of 56% suggests, and he knocked Anthony Dirrell out cold in round 9 in October – the same round Benavidez finished Dirrell in 2019. 

Most people expect Plant to start well but for Benavidez to catch up to him, and even Paddy makes the young undefeated fighter odds-on to win by KO. I think it will be much closer than that, and I think it will go the distance – I can’t call which way it will go, so I am staying on the fence and it’s still a good price!

Boxing Tips

Lawrence Okolie v David Light – Okolie to win in round 4-6
Frazer Clarke v Bogdan Dinu – Clarke to win in round 3-4
Andrew Cain v Ionut Baluta – Cain to win points or decision
David Benavidez v Caleb Plant – Fight will go the distance

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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