Boxing tips: 3 fancy flutters for Katie Taylor v Amanda Serrano

A trio of feisty picks from our boxing man Matt Gipon ahead of the historic bout

Comments

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Katie Taylor v Amanda Serrano is the biggest fight in women’s boxing history and joint promoters Eddie Hearn and Jake Paul are breaking the bank to make it happen. But forget the “women’s” tag, this is a huge bout for the undisputed lightweight crown at Madison Square Garden, New York between an Irish and Puerto Rican fighter – and we’ve got the rundown to do it justice. 

WELCOME TO PADDY POWER NEWS!

Katie Taylor v Amanda Serrano
TV: DAZN
Start time: Ring walks from 3:30am BST on Sunday 1st May

DRAW

Yep, I’m sitting on the fence. But give me a chance and look at those odds! For starters, the standard for women’s championship contests is 10 rounds of two minutes, and this fight is no exception. It makes for fast and furious action but limits the time to get a KO – meaning more decision results and a harder job separating the fighters.   

Taylor – an underdog by an alsatian’s hair’s breadth – is unbeaten and has undoubted quality, but she’s been slipping ever so slightly in the last couple of years. The Bray Bomber had close contests with Delfine Persoon in 2019 and 2020, and with Natasha Jonas in 2021 – in fact, she hasn’t knocked anyone out for seven fights. 

The same can’t be said for Serrano who has a stunning 68% KO ratio. However, dig a little deeper and you’ll see that the Brooklyn resident hasn’t been so devastating in her biggest bouts, and in her only two meaningful scraps at lightweight or above she’s been taken the distance. Unlike Katie, Amanda has been beaten. Way back in 2012, a novice Serrano took on world champion Frida Wallberg and got edged out by excellent footwork and clever boxing. ‘The Real Deal’ has improved and Taylor probably won’t try the same tactics as the Swede. 

I will be shocked if either woman dominates this weekend – the pair match-up in terms of height and reach, and both have oceans of experience. Taylor, 35, has collected all the 135-pound titles in professional boxing, five world champs as an amateur and an Olympic gold medal, while Serrano, 33, has belts from seven weight classes and the experience of 44 fights. The battle will ebb and flow, and by the end it will be really hard to pick a winner. 

FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE

Although the draw is big odds, it’s not as long as usual and there are plenty of uncertainties in the fight – we could see Taylor reach a new peak or continue her gradual decline, and Serrano could rise to the challenge against by far her best opponent or struggle with being in the trenches for the first time. 

Neither lady has ever been dropped and I can’t see a KO, which leaves the fight in the hands of the officials – hands which have been far from safe in recent times.

For this fight it’s tricky to tell who would benefit from dodgy judging – Taylor is Eddie Hearn’s boxer, Serrano lives locally, and a draw would no doubt sell out the MSG again and line everyone’s pockets. 

It’s a tough fight to pick and Paddy has the two champs almost neck-and-neck. There is some decent value on the short side if you look at the fight to go the distance – it’s not a spectacular bet but it could add a nice boost to any acca. 

SERRANO TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IN ROUNDS 1-4 & WIN ON POINTS

First I suggest the draw, now this! I know that backing against Taylor is something like sacrilege, and as a fan I don’t want it to happen, but this is a good bet. Our bookie has piled high his #WhatOddsPaddy area with all manner of bets, but this is the option for me. 

Taylor is used to the big fight week hype but Serrano has looked a little tense at the press conferences, and I think the nerves could run into the first couple of rounds. This is an iconic fight and massive for both women, but Serrano has never had pressure or attention like this before. 

The Puerto Rican southpaw tends to square-up, and against a talent like Taylor she could find herself on her backside in the blink of an eye. But Serrano will recover and settle, and I think if someone fades down the stretch it will be the older Irish woman with the wear-and-tear from all the wars. 

Serrano will be the first opponent Taylor has faced as a pro with superior hand speed, and I think that if there is going to be a deciding factor that will be it. Amanda could just score a few more shots than Taylor and land us this big bet.

READ MORE

The latest boxing odds are on PaddyPower.com right now

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

What do you think?