Boxing Tips: Canelo Alvarez v Caleb Plant 3 knockout bets for Saturday night

Our tipster Matt Gipon can't see past a Canelo demolition.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez has been the head honcho in boxing for a while now and he’s won belts at multiple weights, but he’s never won all the titles in one division – nobody ever has at super middleweight. This weekend the Mexican can make that bit of history and settle some bad blood by dispatching unbeaten American rival Caleb Plant at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, and we’ve got the three best bets on the action.

I think that Plant was just another opponent to Canelo until he started talking trash about Mrs Alvarez at the face-to-face, and when he did Plant got more than he bargained for: a right-left slap to the chops leaving a small gash where his sunglasses had been. Saul is known to relish a bit of beef and that press conference just added the seasoning.

For most boxers, fighting Canelo is another level – not just the pugilistic quality but the number of interviews, the mainstream media interest and the championship pressure. These are all additional factors that Plant isn’t used to and which will draw on his energy resources going into the bout.


Canelo Alvarez v Caleb Plant
Sunday, November 7 – 5am
BT Sport Box Office

The Tennessee slickster has developed away from the spotlight – he went 17 fights unbeaten before getting a shot at solid but unspectacular champion Jose Uzcategui in 2019. ‘Sweethands’ won that title contest in emphatic fashion – knocking down his Venezuelan opponent twice – but that remains the stand-out performance of his career.

The truth is that Canelo is at least one step up from anyone Plant has faced, and if Alvarez was past his best you might give the American a chance – but he isn’t. Canelo, 31, is looking better than ever and the handbags at the face-off would have focused the four-weight champion’s mind more than ever.

Canelo Alvarez to Win in Round 7-9

There is no escaping the fact that Alvarez is undersized for the super middleweight division – Plant is a regular 168-pounder but he has a five inch height advantage and three extra inches in reach. The thing is, this weight class seems to suit the Mexican maestro – Canelo has stopped three of his last four foes and he’s rarely looked even the slightest bit troubled.

Saul turned pro at 15-years-old in the men’s working clubs of Guadalajara and, in the 16 years since, he’s been in 59 bouts, he’s fought at the championship level for 10 years and he’s beaten the best … except for Floyd Mayweather.

In the last two years Canelo has sparked-out light heavyweight king Sergey Kovalev, he battered super middleweight champ Callum Smith so badly that he tore the Brit’s bicep from the bone, he knocked Avni Yildirim down three times in three rounds before the Turk retired, and he literally punched a hole in Billy Joe Saunders.

I don’t think Plant is more elusive than Billy Joe and he doesn’t have the pedigree of Smith or Kovalev, and, what’s more, the Yank doesn’t have anywhere near enough power to push back Alvarez. I think by the midpoint of the fight Canelo will be dominating and it could be over soon after that.

Canelo Alvarez to Win in Round 3

Plant passes the eye test – he’s got fast hands and good movement – but he hasn’t faced an elite opponent. The performance against Uzcategui was impressive but his next best result was a points win against faded ‘B’-level contender Caleb Truax.

I think that we’ll find out on Saturday that Plant sits somewhere in the middle of Canelo’s opponents for quality, but there’s a chance that his record is padded and his moves in the ring against lesser boxers flatter to deceive against the pound-for-pound star.

In the last six years, Alvarez has won four times in the first half of the fight and on three of those occasions the fight was stopped in the third round. It’s long odds on another round 3 win this weekend but I reckon it’s worth a punt.

Caleb Plant to be Knocked Down in Rounds 1-3

When we look at experience there such a vast difference: Plant was taught in his garden by his dad and other parents because there was no boxing gym in town, he had a reasonable amateur career and then turned pro in 2014; Alvarez grew up in a family where his seven older brothers all boxed professionally, and in 2013 he faced Mayweather as a unified world champion.

Plant may surprise us with incredible toughness this Saturday but I think the first few rounds will be a shock to him. Alvarez will want to test him early and I can see Plant getting dropped – I mean, he was almost levelled-out by the slaps at the press conference.

Canelo Alvarez v Caleb Plant betting tips:

Canelo Alvarez to Win in Round 7-9
Canelo Alvarez to Win in Round 3
Caleb Plant to be Knocked Down in Rounds 1-3

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.


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