Boxing Tips: 6 smart bets for Fury v Wilder fight and Saturday’s other action

Our tipster Matt Gipon fancies the Gypsy King to tear up.

Tuson Fury v Deontay Wilder 3 best bets

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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

The heavyweight scene shifted a couple of weeks ago and it can shift again in the Nevada desert this weekend when Britain’s remaining world champion Tyson Fury defends his title against Deontay Wilder in the third fight between the pair.

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There’s a hard-hitting undercard supporting the Las Vegas showdown and there’s top boxing in Liverpool too, including the headline derby day scrap between Liam Smith and Anthony Fowler – so let’s get stuck in.

Sunday 5am: Tyson Fury v Deontay Wilder – Fury to Win in Rounds 5-8

The first fight was a draw, in the rematch Fury battered Wilder in seven rounds, then the giant Brit was set to unify all the belts against Anthony Joshua this summer but it was scrapped when Wilder sprung another rematch clause from his contract, then Fury got covid, and here we are with a trilogy bout 20 months since the rematch and the last time both men entered a ring.

Deontay had more conspiracy theories than QAnon for why he lost the rematch but the time off should have allowed him to heal the mental scars. It’s worth remembering that Wilder insisted on taking this fight even though he could have got paid handsomely to step aside – he must be confident.

‘The Bronze Bomber’ has got a well respected new coach and he seems to have put on some muscle mass. In the second fight Wilder got pushed back to the ropes and this time he can’t get beaten up before he attempts to throw his big shots. Wilder’s best chance of levelling up the fight series is with a KO in Rounds 1-6 – which Paddy has kindly boosted in his Power Prices if you’re interested.

With Wilder’s power you can’t rule out anything but I only give the American a puncher’s chance. I don’t buy into any rumours that Fury is distracted or unfit – the unbeaten Englishman has always turned up at his best for the big bouts and he’s in a better place than he was for the first Wilder contest – if he needed a reminder of what can happen to a favourite then AJ provided that a fortnight ago.

I am not as confident that Wilder is the best he’s ever been – he’s a couple of weeks away from his 36th birthday, he looks a bit heavier than normal and, most importantly, this is by far the longest layoff of his career – for a man who never moved smoothly ring rust could be a real issue.

I think Wilder will launch some wild attacks in the first few rounds but the facts are that he’s only knocked out three opponents before round 8 in the last seven years, and they were all slow, rigid boxers nothing like Fury. After the first few rounds, and a couple of hairy moments, I expect Tyson to take control again.

Once you’ve lost once it’s easier to lose again, and when Wilder is taking a shellacking he might give up, or his gas tank might have a little less after the last defeat and with age, or the referee might close the show if he’s seen enough – ultimately, I think it’ll be another middle rounds stoppage win for the great Brit.

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Saturday 10:30pm: Liam Smith v Anthony Fowler – Smith to Win in Rounds 5-8

Up in Liverpool, the main event is an inter-city clash between former world champion Liam Smith and rising star Anthony Fowler. There isn’t a fierce rivalry between the super welterweights but when they were offered the fight neither could back down.

‘Beefy’ Smith is 33 now but I still think he’ll find a home for the left to the body and the left hook upstairs against the high guard of Fowler. Liam has scored six middle-round wins in his last 14 fights and Smith is a very attractive price to Win in Rounds 5-8 this Saturday.

Saturday 8pm: Kieron Conway faces James Metcalf – The Draw

Saturday 9pm: Ted Cheeseman v Troy Williamson – The Draw

There is a whole queue of serious, solid super welterweights in Britain who are very evenly matched, and there are two more great contests at 154lbs on the undercard on Merseyside. Ted Cheeseman takes on Troy Williamson and Kieron Conway faces James Metcalf, and the bet on both of these is The Draw.

Sunday 4am: Robert Helenius v Adam Kownacki – Fight Not to go the Distance

Back in America, on the Fury-Wilder undercard, heavyweights Robert Helenius and Adam Kownacki go at it in a rematch of their March 2020 encounter. Helenius upset the applecart last year with a fourth-round TKO win and I’ll be backing the Fight Not to go the Distance again this weekend.

Sunday 3am: Efe Ajagba v Frank Sanchez – Sanchez to Win on Points

And there’s one more heavyweight bout worth watching on the Vegas bill – between unbeaten contenders Efe Ajagba and Frank Sanchez. The winner won’t be far off big fights, and I fancy the silky Sanchez to Win on Points against the slower Ajagba.

This weekend’s boxing tips:

Sunday 5am: Tyson Fury v Deontay Wilder- Fury to Win in Rounds 5-8
Sunday 4am: Robert Helenius v Adam Kownacki – Fight Not to go the Distance
Sunday 3am: Efe Ajagba v Frank Sanchez – Sanchez to Win on Points
Saturday 10:30pm: Liam Smith v Anthony Fowler – Smith to Win in Rounds 5-8
Saturday 9pm: Ted Cheeseman v Troy Williamson – The Draw
Saturday 8pm: Kieron Conway faces James Metcalf – The Draw

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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