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The mega heavyweight showdown we all wanted is off but Fury v Wilder 3 is a fun fight well worth our attention. The big trilogy bout in the early hours of Sunday July 25 UK-time is not far off and we’ve already been treated to bizarre face-offs and a few outrageous comments, so it’s about time we cast an eye over Paddy’s prices.
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Tyson Fury to win by KO/TKO
We’re here because, for some reason, another rematch clause was inserted into the Fury-Wilder 2 contract and, although Deontay Wilder showed no interest in the third fight for about a year, the lawyers did what lawyers do and forced everybody to stick to what they originally signed up for.
It seems that Anthony Joshua, Eddie Hearn and the public were convinced that the third-fight contract was in the trash, but Tyson Fury and his wily 89-year-old promoter Bob Arum had something cooking on the side – the ‘The Gypsy King’ was already in the US and a venue was booked within 24hrs of the lawyers giving the green light.
In fact, Fury had been training seriously since the start of the year, which always seemed a little premature for an unscheduled bout with AJ, and I have to assume the Lancashire man had been preparing with Wilder in mind.
I’m not sure the same can be said for the preparation of ‘The Bronze Bomber’. In the past few months, Wilder has been posting some pad work with new trainer and former opponent Malik Scott on his socials but if anything that has raised more questions than answers: Has ex-boxer Scott trained anyone before? Is trying to add body punching to Wilder’s repertoire at the age of 35 a good idea? Is it all pad work and dancing or is there any sparring too?
Big (and scary) John Fury – Tyson’s dad – wasn’t happy that the champ ditched AJ at the last minute and he’s worried that things could go wrong for his son, but Fury Jr has the blueprint to beat Wilder and I expect him to get another early and emphatic win at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Tyson Fury to win in Rounds 1-6
Last time out Fury dropped Wilder in rounds three and five, and by the seventh session Deontay’s corner showed mercy and called an end to the fight. Realistically, the contest could have been stopped at any time from the third round onwards but Wilder deserves credit for battling on as long as he did.
In the aftermath, the American heavyweight threw out wild excuses and conspiracy theories like confetti – from Fury having loaded gloves to Wilder’s ring walk costume weighing too much. It sounded a lot like Wilder couldn’t handle the loss and he parted ways with the only experienced member of his team.
It seems fair to assume his confidence took a battering as well as his body in that defeat and his recent press conference performances haven’t allayed those worries – Wilder wouldn’t talk in the main presser and in interviews he’s looked agitated and unsure.
What happens to Wilder when the going gets tough in this bout? The Alabama boxer doesn’t have the pride of an undefeated record to protect and he’s got a new and inexperienced trainer – I’m no psychiatrist but I can see Wilder folding quicker than last time and this fight being wrapped up in less than six rounds.
Round 4 – 6
If you have the nagging feeling you should be hedging your bets, you aren’t alone! Fury by knockout is my pick but this is heavyweight boxing and Wilder has serious power if nothing else. This is when we turn to the ‘When Will The Fight End?’ market and pick a group of rounds, and rest easy in the knowledge that our bet is good if either man gets the KO.
Firstly, Wilder has knocked out 40 out of his 41 opponents and Fury is the one outlier, and even the British champ was knocked down twice in their first contest in 2018.
Then there’s the air of complacency about Tyson in this contest. Fury has taken this fight without much concern about where or when it is, and you can’t tell me that the Brit will have the same drive to prepare for this bout that he had for the first two contests.
Both men have been away from the ring since they last fought each other – a whopping 17 months ago – and that adds uncertainty to any outcome. I’m not going to back Wilder outright but I will have a little bit of money on rounds 4-6 in the ‘When Will The Fight End?’ market.
Read more
- Joshua v Fury tips: Paddy’s early best bets for mega heavyweight unification fight
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- Hearn: ‘Fury-Joshua fight will happen on Twitter instead’
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