Boxing tips: Paddy’s expert on what to expect from Floyd Mayweather v Logan Paul

Our tipster Matt Gipon has his say on Sunday's showdown.


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I never expected the greatest fighter of the last generation to have a scrap with a dude who shot to fame for antics like giving CPR to a fish, but here we are and I must admit it’s got my attention.

The “gotcha hat” incident has brought the bad blood to boiling point and has probably attracted more eyeballs than any other promo video in the history of boxing, perfectly setting up the eight-round “exhibition” on Sunday night for mega boxing platforms Sky in the UK and Showtime in the US.

They say “anything can happen in a fight” and “one punch can change history”, but once the bell goes Paul will be in Mayweather’s world and how it ends depends entirely on the man they call ‘Money’.

Puncher’s chance

You’ll hear an argument on social media, or even from one of your mates, that Mayweather is old and past-it, and Paul is big and strong, and that the floppy-haired YouTuber has a ‘puncher’s-chance’ this weekend – when you hear or see this, stop them right there. Floyd may have aged and looked a bit dishevelled during the fracas with the Paul brothers at the promo event, but the biggest factor in getting old is often injury – and the gym-loving Mayweather has avoided picking up big damage.

And then there’s the size difference – unlike boring old traditional boxing, the weight limits have been loosened for this bout. The five-weight world champion is 5’8’’ on his tip-toes and about 150-pounds after a curry, while Logan is a solid 6’2 and 190-pounds. But, you need to be able to land a punch to make it count, and Mayweather is one of the greatest defensive fighters of all time.

This bout is scheduled for eight rounds and if the fight goes the distance there aren’t any judges to decide a winner, so the only way we get a proper result is if the fight ends in a stoppage. Viral moments last seconds, not minutes, and I expect both men to be going for the spectacular.

What’s in it

You might wonder why a boxing great needs to take this risk and there are three factors: Mayweather loves the money, he craves the attention, and he knows there is no risk at all. Paul made his professional boxing debut against British video game-reviewer KSI in 2019 and he lost via a split decision. The highlight for the blonde bomber was scoring a knockdown in the fifth round once both novices were going “bombs away”.

The champion of home video will be in good shape and fresh from sparring some decent guys, but nothing will prepare him for Mayweather’s class. I expect Floyd to be in complete control from the opening bell, but he’s a clever customer and I reckon he’ll have a look at Paul for a few minutes before committing to attack.

Mayweather didn’t manage to knock out any of his last seven professional boxing opponents, but he did finish UFC’s Conor McGregor and Japanese kickboxer Tenshin Nasukawa before the final bell. I believe that Mayweather will be picking apart Paul after a few rounds and he’ll be able to get a stunning stoppage.

Into the later rounds

The trouble is, Mayweather might actually carry his opponent. This contest will raise ‘Money’s’ profile with a different demographic, and with the cash on the table it might be in his interest to get another fight against a social media sensation.

If Logan appears to be competitive in the fight a rematch could be a possibility, and another option is Logan’s younger brother Jake Paul – he’s the one who actually took Mayweather’s hat in the “gotcha hat” melee and starched faded MMA fighter Ben Askren in a boxing match a few months ago.

If the 1996 Olympic bronze medallist isn’t in a hurry this fight could go past four rounds, but Mayweather won’t be happy with the contest going the distance. A stoppage win for Floyd is worth a bet and you can expect more fights with celebrity novices in the not too distant future.


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