Boxing Tips: Our Alvarez v Yildirim & Parker v Fa big betting preview

Our tipster Matt Gipon gives his tips ahead of Saul 'Canelo’ Alvarez v Avni Yildirim this weekend.


*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

You can’t go a week in the world of boxing without a huge upset but don’t expect Avni Yildirim to pull off a shock win against pound-for-pound best ‘Canelo’ Alvarez in this weekend’s showcase event. We also have former heavyweight head boy Joseph Parker in action against Junior Fa and a gaggle of other bouts – so let’s get stuck in.


You can forgive Canelo for taking a soft touch given that it has been a smidge over two months since he beat super-middleweight supremo Callum Smith and he plans to be back in the ring in May to unify the belts at 168 pounds.

Nobody is giving Yildirim much of a chance and even Paddy has priced the Turk to win a two-horse race well into the double-digit odds. Don’t be tempted by the big returns on offer as the only one being generous this weekend is Canelo by giving Avni a shot at the title and some pocket money for his appearance fee.

Yildirim actually lost his last fight – two years ago to former champ Anthony Dirrell – and before that, he scraped a mixed decision against a 46-year-old in 2018 and was sparked out in three rounds by Chris Eubank Jr in 2017.

The challenger’s nickname, “Mr Robot”, probably tells you he’s not the slickest exponent of the noble art – Avni is a face-first fighter who is easy to hit but strong enough to cause fringe world level guys some issues. The man from Istanbul holds a mediocre 52% KO ratio.

Mercifully for Yildirim, Canelo is not quite as destructive at the higher weights – in fights contracted at 160 pounds or more, the flame-haired Mexican has only recorded two KOs in seven bouts. Our bookie is offering increasingly better odds the longer the fight goes and that’s the place to find our bet.

Alvarez is only 30 years old but he’s a seasoned campaigner of 58 fights. The four-weight world champion will have a look at his prey for a round or two before laying the traps. The odds for Canelo winning by decision are long but the idea of the bout going the distance is too far fetched.

The rumours are that Canelo wants to relieve Billy Joe Saunders of his super middleweight strap on ‘Cinco de Mayo’ weekend, and the perfect way to build up to that blockbuster event is by finishing this fight early and getting Bill up in the ring afterwards for a good, old-fashioned face-off.

Alvarez will be landing pretty much at will by rounds three or four and if we don’t see a KO, expect the referee or corner to throw the towel in during the middle rounds.

BET OF THE BOUT: Alvarez in rounds 5-8.


If you prefer your boxing with your breakfast rather than in the middle of the night, look no further than the heavyweight action from Auckland. Parker and Fa are old amateur rivals, where it was Fa who had the upper hand, but it’s Parker who has reached the heights in the professional game.

Fa is 31 and after an extended career wearing the vest and head-guards he’s notched up 19 wins – 10 inside the distance – in the paid ranks. The lad has decent skills to go with a big frame but he’s noticeably gassed in later rounds and all his stoppages have come inside the first three sessions.

Even though he has been mixing it with the best for four years, Parker is still only 29 years old. Joe has some of the fastest hands in the premier division and Fa is not the hardest to hit – I am backing this one to be wrapped up way before the championship rounds.

BET OF THE BOUT: Parker in rounds 5-8.


3am Sunday: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Avni Yildirim – Alvarez to win in rounds 5-8
9am Saturday: Joseph Parker v Junior Fa – Parker in rounds 5-8

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.


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