Sparks will fly in New York as the Irish attempt to take over again...
Saturday night's alright for fighting
Boxing and betting fans are in for a treat this weekend. The unquestionable high point comes from New York on Saturday night when Leo Santa Cruz defends his world title against Carl Frampton. Before that there is Josh Warrington versus Patrick Hyland, Luke Campbell against Argenis Mendez and British champ Tyrone Nurse facing Tommy Coyle all in Leeds.
Leo Santa Cruz v Carl Frampton, Sunday 04.10
In another year Santa Cruz vs Carl Frampton would be the highlight of the British boxing calendar but when you’ve had Canelo Alvarez ironing out Amir Khan, and Golovkin-Brook and Fury-Klitschko on the horizon, it doesn’t seem quite that big.
Well, it isn’t big, it’s huge. It’s a multi-weight world champ against a former unified king. These two have more belts than your local leather merchant.
The undefeated Mexican-American was the boss at bantamweight in 2012, the supremo of super bantam between 2013 and 2015, and has been the featherweight front-runner since August last year.
Stats back it up
For Frampton this is his first contest in the featherweight division but the move up of only four pounds will have allowed him to do a bit more work on the guns in the gym.
Santa Cruz is the odds on favourite, which seems harsh on the unbeaten Northern Irishman at first but the stats back it up.
‘El Terremoto’ pretty much tops the tables for punches thrown per round, punches landed per round and connect percentage in any division across all of boxing. Santa Cruz is fearsome but Frampton has too much quality to be overwhelmed.
Paddy has pushed out all sorts of interesting markets for this bout – but if you’re going for something different you might as well go big.
The fight to finish in the 27th minute (end of the ninth) is 33/1 and both fighters have history of winning in round nine.
A more balanced bet is for Santa Cruz to keep his crown by way of decision at 11/8.
Josh Warrington v Patrick Hyland, Saturday 22.30
After calling out Lee Selby for more than a year, Warrington’s wife-to-be told him he couldn’t rearrange his wedding for a shot at the Welshman’s world title. Instead, the lad from Leeds defends his plastic featherweight international belt against Ireland’s Patrick Hyland.
Both men were in action fairly recently. Warrington once again showed his speed, stamina and defence in a one-sided victory over Hisashi Amagasa, while Hyland was on the receiving end of a two round whooping from world-elite Gary Russell Jr.
Hyland will do much better in this fight but it’s hard to see how he can win against Warrington’s incredible punch output.
Josh is only 8/13 to win on points but it’s probably worth it.
If you are looking for a bit more action then Hyland on points at 7/1 or Warrington in rounds 7-12 at 7/1 are both good value.
Luke Campbell v Argenis Mendez, Saturday 21.15
Another meaningless title is on the line in the lightweight scrap between Campbell and Mendez but the fight is a meaningful step up in opposition for the Brit. Ten year pro Mendez is a former world champion and the man from the Dominican Republic only has one stoppage defeat on his record.
Campbell’s professional career looked like it had been seriously derailed when he got dropped and beaten on points at the end of last year but the former Olympic gold medalist showed his metal and won his comeback fight against former British champ Gary Sykes in two short rounds in March.
Mendez at 7/2 to win and 9/1 to win by KO are reasonable bets if you think Campbell might fold under the pressure again but the truth is that the away fighter isn’t world class.
Campbell has notched up all of his last seven victories inside the distance and he’s only 5/6 to win by KO this time.
My tip is to back the southpaw to finish the job in rounds 4-6 at 7/2.
Tyrone Nurse v Tommy Coyle, Saturday, 20.30
At the domestic level in the super-lightweight division the tall and slick Nurse will face the short and bullish Coyle.
Both Yorkshiremen have touched the canvas several times in their careers but you can still get a very decent 15/8 that this fight does not go the distance.
‘Boom Boom’ Coyle is the outsider for this fight but 7/1 for him to win by KO is generous from Paddy.
What do you think?
After calling out Lee Selby for more than a year Warrington’s wife-to-be told him he couldn’t rearrange his wedding for a shot at the Welshman’s world title. Instead, the lad from Leeds defends his plastic featherweight international belt against Ireland’s Patrick Hyland.
Both men were action fairly recently. Warrington once again showed his speed, stamina and defence in a one-sided victory over Hisashi Amagasa, while Hyland was on the receiving end of a two round whooping from world-elite Gary Russell Jr.
Hyland will do much better in this fight but it’s hard to see how he can win against Warrington’s incredible punch output. Josh is only 8/13 to win on points but it’s probably worth it. If you are looking for a bit more action then Hyland on points at 7/1 or Warrington in rounds 7-12 at 7/1 are both good value.