Eurovision 2022: Your best picks for the first semi-final on Tuesday

A lowdown of who's who and what's what ahead of Tuesday's semi

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Everyone’s secret guilty pleasure kicks off tonight in Turin with the first Semi-Final of this year’s Eurovision taking place. Ireland don’t get knocked out until Thursday in Semi-Final 2 but there is still plenty of interest in Tuesday’s edition.

Get the beers in and your glad rags on as three nights of Europop entertainment await. Yep, that’s right, it’s time for Eurovision 2022!

TV: BBC Three & BBC iPlayer – 8pm

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Semi Final 1: Norway to win

This year’s favourites Ukraine are among the line-up here and will sail through with ease. It’s difficult to judge how much of an impact the current state of affairs will have but it no doubt will result in them receiving some sympathy votes, and they are the only country to have a 100% qualifying record from semi-finals since they were introduced in 2004.

They are currently odds-on in the main outright and naturally therefore are even shorter to win tonight’s semi-final. Undoubtedly they are the likely winner here but I do think it worth chancing an alternative winner here considering the public response is so difficult to quantify.

For that reason Norway to win Semi-Final 1 is the first tip for tonight. While their song “Give That Wolf A Banana” – presumably told from the perspective of Little Red Riding Hood – will not be for everyone it will undoubtedly pick up a lot of televotes.

While it is a bit gimmicky it is very catchy and will stick in the head of first time listeners. It also has a prime slot being the penultimate performance of the night. It is a nailed on qualifier that could go well on Saturday, the only drawbacks tonight are it is also paired in the same semi-final as similarly joke-like acts in Latvia and Moldova which might dilute their televote but I still expect this to be in the top 3 on the night – please note that if you do back this, the result won’t be known until Saturday night after the final.

Semi Final 1: Iceland, Lithuania & Latvia to qualify

There is some value to be had in the qualification markets for semi-final 1. Both Iceland and Lithuania look over-priced at odds-against to qualify. The Icelandic act have also got a prime position in performing in the 14th slot, just after the dance-pop Austria, with a folk group song by 3 sisters. It risks being forgotten about but there is something entrancing about the song which makes it feel underestimated in the market. 

Lithuania doesn’t have the same benefit of a good slot – being the 3rd performance of the night – but is one of the better singers in the competition and is a better entry than some of the other competitors at similar prices. 

Latvia are another I expect to qualify by the skin of their teeth. Their death slot at number 2 is a concern but the novelty and upbeat factor will be remembered as 3 ballads follow them.

Semi Final 1: Moldova, Austria & Albania NOT to qualify

That brings us to who will miss out on making the final and I think there are a few worth chancing in this market. Moldova being the pick of the bunch not to qualify. Another upbeat song that has disappointed with its staging and could miss out on expected televotes with the public preferring Latvia and Norway. 

Austria is another whose staging and live performance has disappointed and should be considered in the not to qualify market along with AlbaniaThis would be the biggest surprise of the 3 of it were to miss out but the dodgy vocals could mean she starts the show on a flat note and quickly becomes forgotten.

Semi Final 1 tips:

  • Norway to win Semi-Final 1
  • Iceland, Lithuania and Latvia to qualify
  • Moldova, Austria and Albania not to qualify

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What do you think?